The "coup" in Russia gives Prigozhin's Wagner mercenaries the perfect cover for "counterterrorism" in Poland

submitted by jerryk from (self.WayOfTheBern)

There was something very odd about the "coup" in Russia recently. In particular, how almost nobody ended up dead, in particular, the coup leaders. And how it doesn't appear to have had any noticeable effect on the Russian government, at all. Also, how the main result of this supposed coup was the relocation in Belarus of the largest and deadliest Russian mercenary organization -- where they have ready access to both Poland and Ukraine.

What does seem quite clear is that the Kremlin is very anxious to distance themselves as much as possible from the Wagner Mercenary Group's activities, even, and especially when, their activities quite clearly favor the interests of Russia and the Kremlin! So, in the recent coup in Niger, the Wagner mercenary group overthrew the current government in favor of a pro-Russian regime, but the Kremlin expressed deep concern over this event indeed, and categorically denies any involvement in it, at all.

Now, currently, the Polish government is expressing deep concern, not over the possibility of an actual, open, armed attack by the Wagner mercenaries, which they could probably repulse. But, rather, the Poles are worried about the likelihood of hundreds of Russian mercenaries infiltrating into Poland under cover, and sabotaging military installations and weapons stores destined for Ukraine. Now, that does seem like quite a legitimate concern for the Poles to have, doesn't it?

Of course, if the Poles could make a case that Russians in numbers were attacking, with government backing, Polish territory, then they could attempt to invoke Article 5 of the NATO Accord, and obtain armed support from any and all NATO members to retaliate for said attack. And, although Russia's contempt for NATO is becoming more and more apparent as NATO's most advanced weapons systems continue to fail miserably in the current Ukraine War, still, the Russians would just as soon avoid the invocation of Article 5 if they can avoid it.

So, that's precisely why we have such an elaborate campaign of deception on the part of the Russians to try to distance themselves from Wagner's activities, and maintain an air of plausible deniability regarding anything whatsoever they might do, however much it might clearly be in Russia's interests for them to have done it. So, if all of the sudden, which is very likely indeed in the very near future, weapons stockpiles in Poland destined for the Ukrainian resistance start blowing up for no apparent reason, then the Russian politicians can maintain a virtuous wide-eyed innocence in facing the world press. Even if Russia's Wagner mercenaries themselves are captured red handed engaging in obvious sabotage in Poland, the Russians can point to their own "horrible experiences" with these same mercenaries -- "Why they tried to take over the Russian government itself! How could we possibly have any involvement with them, at all? How can we possibly control them in Poland, when we can't even control them in Russia? They're crazy wild-men, who knows why they do anything, at all, but, it certainly has nothing whatsoever to do with us!"

The fact is, the Russians are very good at what they do, and what they do is military conquest and control. And, they've been at it for close on a thousand years now, largely following up and improving on techniques adopted from the Mongol Golden Horde. Although the U.S. may have "won the Cold War", Russia is cleaning the U.S.' clock currently, and making the military leaders in the Pentagon and in NATO look like total fools. And when all the Ukraine's stockpiles of weapons in Poland start blowing up spontaneously very shortly, we'll all know who's behind it, won't we?

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[–]InumaGaming Socialist 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

Poland has been eyeing parts of Belarus and Ukraine for a hot minute.

Russia has basically been working to give them something to think about when it comes to Belarus and if they work to fight that far out of their territory, that's on them.

[–]jerryk[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

If Poland attacks territory Russia considers under its jurisdiction, then NATO will not help Poland. If Poland does that, then that's on Poland.

[–]InumaGaming Socialist 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

True, and they've been trying to inch closer to Belarus which Putin has already called out a few times in the past.

Even further, the prime minister talks about how he wants to torture Putin and such which is incredibly ignorant and heartless of him.

[–]penelopepnortneyBecome ungovernable 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

I think you're right that a plan for Wagner is being hatched but don't think it's as extensive as what you describe.

This video of a discussion between Putin and Lukashenko, about halfway down the page, is clearly staged as Simplicius points out; i.e., whatever is being said here was already agreed upon before they walked into the room. At about the 7-minute mark Lukashenko says:

"the Wagnerites are beginning to strain us - asking to move to the west: 'Let us!... we'll go on an "excursion" to Warsaw and Rsezow'...of course, I keep them, as agreed, in the center of Belarus. I would not want to relocate them there because their mood is bad and, to be fair, they know what is happening around the Union State"

He's referring to Poland transferring armed forces to the borders of Belarus; opening a repair facility for Leopards; and activating an airfield at Rsezow where equipment from the US and others is being sent.

But I don't think Russia would blow up arms depots in Poland by stealth or otherwise. That risks escalating to a direct confrontation with NATO which they don't need to do because they do a bang-up job of destroying weapons and equipment once it reaches Ukrainian soil.

It seems more likely to me that the "threat" of Wagner is being used to deter NATO from trying to once again keep Russia from using the Suwalki corridor to keep Kaliningrad supplied. Simplicius included the following report in his post that's linked above:

Poland will create a new sapper battalion, which will specialize in conducting operations in the Suwalki corridor along the border with Lithuania , reports ERR.

The Suwalki Corridor is a section in northeastern Poland, located between Belarus and Kaliningrad. Control of this corridor cuts the Baltics away from other NATO countries.

In a subscriber mailbag post, he says this:

...I’ve often talked about how one of the next flashpoints which the West could utilize to destabilize Russia and keep the war prolonged is playing more games with Kaliningrad, as they did last year when they ordered Lithuania to suddenly halt Russian railway supplies as codified in the 1991 treaty, which pass through Lithuania to supply Kaliningrad.

So by placing Wagner there and giving the whiff of a threatening posture, Russia is in fact creating a deterrent to keep the West from even ‘thinking about’ renewing the Kaliningrad blockade plans.

...Finland’s accession into NATO is also a well-planned out cog in future provocations. The intention, which I once outlined long ago, is to create blockades in the future between Finland and Estonia in order to hamper Russia in the Baltic Sea.

As Southfront reported earlier this year:

With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, a dividing line in the middle of the Gulf of Finland was agreed upon between Russia and newly independent Estonia. From this middle line, Finland and Estonia retreated three kilometres to allow Russia a six-kilometre channel for the free passage of Russian merchant and military fleets, thus actually making these international waters.

Simplicius again:

The plan at the time [last year] was for Estonia to widen its economic exclusion zone from its coast, but Finland, not being part of NATO likely backed down from joining the plan. Now part of NATO, Finland can perhaps rejoin the plan in the future. If both were to ‘expand’ their zones, it would create no room in the middle of the channel for Russia to legally pass, further putting pressure on blockading Kaliningrad by sea.

In a recent report I had also mentioned MK Bhadrakumar’s recent article which revealed that a top German military leader/defense expert had stated that “Nato should consider to “cut off Kaliningrad from the Russian supply lines. We see how Putin reacts when he is under pressure.”

All that said, this is Wagner, after all. So whatever the plan is doesn't mean they'll strictly adhere to it. They are unquestionably courageous and effective fighters but it was not part of the Russian plan to capture territory, including Bakhmut, because then you have to defend it (as Russian troops are having to do now). Wagner took that mission on itself and while it was successful and popular, it was also problematic for those responsible for conducting the wider war. It wasn't the first time they did something like this, there's speculation that Prigozhin's antipathy for the Ministry of Defense stemmed from Wagner's unauthorized stunt in Syria in 2015 that resulted in many Wagner deaths when they were bombed by the Americans.

[–]jerryk[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Thanks for the comment, you may be right. There are many levels here, and, yours may be the correct one, and I may be being a bit crude. Of course, there are always many possibilities available, and Wagner in Belarus opens up more of them.

[–]penelopepnortneyBecome ungovernable 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

It's hard to know. The Kremlin keeps its cards close to the vest and Prigozhin is always an unknown variable. I still haven't figured out his mutiny to my satisfaction but agree with Alexander Mercouris that it is extremely unlikely it was a maskirovka that Putin either orchestrated or willingly participated in. The aftermath is what is so confounding. But it is kind of amusing how Wagner's reputation is causing such a flurry of alarm in bordering NATO states now that they're in Belarus.

[–]Super_Soviet_Gundam 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Russia is cleaning the U.S.' clock currently, and making the military leaders in the Pentagon and in NATO look like total fools.

Counterpoint: The Pentagon's DEIB score is way, way higher than Russia's. CHECKMATE!

[–]jerryk[S] 2 insightful - 3 fun2 insightful - 2 fun3 insightful - 3 fun -  (0 children)

Yeah, well the Diversity, Equity, Inclusion and Belonging score may not be the best way to win world wars! But, I guess you already knew that, didn't you?