Honestly, I don't know about that fact, because the no hormones, no surgery snarts might be a "the simplest explanation is likely there":

The snarts who are sneaky fuckers are obviously incels. Incels are the one and only one group of people who are a truly safe target to hate and discriminate against in modern society, and indeed a truly good person is expected to do so.

These incels were the ones to realize that claiming transgenderism was a cheat code that instantly vaults them from the bottom of the totem pole to the top of it and makes any truly good person view it as their moral imperative to give that trans person any and everything their little heart desires in life...and if (since they're an incel) what they desire is to get their "she"-pee wet? Well, that is what they'll get.

As such, as long as incels are the one group that it's okay to mock and discriminate against, you'll never stop the sneaky fuckers from becoming no hormones, no surgery, no change troons, simply because there's a benefit for the incel to claim asylum as a trans person. Even if trans rights dissipate into something "normal" and the movement starts going downwards, being trans will STILL be better than being an incel, so the incel will still be moving up in the world to claim they're trans...which will mean that the movement will stay as loud and whiny and angry as it is, which will keep propping it up at the top.