In a hypothetical matchup with Haley, the poll finds the former ambassador to the United Nations would win 49% of women, 46% of voters under the age of 35, 56% of voters over the age of 65, 65% of independents, 54% of white college graduates and 51% of self-described moderates.

Haley is it, then ?

She is definitely the long - term candidate of the state security apparatus