I'm not sure that a second peak even could be anything like the strength of the first, bearing in mind something like 40% would have already had it. Add in face masks lessening severity, and the fact that it's already ripped through the care homes where most of the mortality was going to come from.

Bear in mind when you look at antibody studies, they are only picking up people who had it within a few weeks prior to the test. Antibodies don't stick around.

One of the countries testing found their T cell study found twice as many recovered as the antibodies suggested.

The R number goes down very quickly once you start getting close to fifty percent too, unless you've got something that's got long term survivability on surfaces.

I think the worst of it is probably over.