Updates on the Ukraine war

submitted by casparvoneverecBig tiddy respecter from (self.debatealtright)

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[–]casparvoneverecBig tiddy respecter[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

  1. Russian special forces have captured an airport 15 km away from Kiev.

  2. Hard to say but likely. They're completely overwhelmed by Russian airstrikes and artillery barrages. There are some reports of surrenders.

  3. Can't say. Most likely they'll initially set up a puppet government. This is my theory but Ukraine might initially be split into three. A great Novorissiya, a Galician state in Western Ukraine and a Ukrainian rump state in central Ukraine. My guess is they'll overtime annex these countries into Russia. They'll probably hold referendums and ''democratically'' join Russia. Its possible they'll let Galicia be or pawn them off to Poland or Hungary.

  4. Nah. This is pure delusion. Insurgencies need several factors to be successful-

a. A youthful population with lots of surplus males.

b. Inaccessible terrain to hide in.

c. A limp wristed occupying force that is afraid to be ruthless.

None of these will be true for Ukraine. It's a country with a TFR of 1.3 and nations like that don't fight insurgencies. Ukraine is mostly flat indefensible terrain, ideal for tank warfare. No mountains to hide in. The Russians are not limp wristed liberals like the US. They will ruthlessly crush any and all dissent. They've had experience with dealing with insurgencies in Chechnya and they were much more alien to Russians and far more fanatical and violent.

[–]NeoRail 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

They'll probably hold referendums and ''democratically'' join Russia.

Personally, I would be really surprised if that happened. Giving Ukrainians citizenship would just result in the appearance of a Ukrainian political party. I think the more likely scenario is that Russia will annex the ethnically Russian territories of Ukraine and maybe some strategically important border areas. The rest would probably be given to a Russia-aligned Ukrainian military government, along the lines of Belarus.

[–]casparvoneverecBig tiddy respecter[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Russians, Belarussians, and Ukrainians are the same people- that's the crux of Putin's thesis and that Solzhenytsin as well. 41% of Ukrainians agree with that statement. Add in some propaganda and coercion and it would jump to 70% within a few years. There won't be a Ukrainian party. The Moscow government would never allow it.

[–]NeoRail 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

I don't think the Putin government has that level of control over its citizens, otherwise there would be no liberal or nationalist opposition in the country. I do not think that adding tens of millions of Ukrainian voters to the mix would be a good idea.