all 15 comments

[–]EthnocratArcheofuturist 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (4 children)

I really appreciate these updates. Keep them coming. Your accurate predictions are impressive to say the least. I have a few questions though.

  1. What about the rumors that the Wagner Group has taken the airport of Kiev?

  2. Is the Ukrainian military less willing to really fight than previously believed?

  3. Is Russia planning an actual occupation of the entire country, or just planning to install a pro-Russian government?

  4. Is there a risk of a prolonged Ukrainian insurgency that will bleed the Russians dry?

[–]casparvoneverecBig tiddy respecter[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

  1. Russian special forces have captured an airport 15 km away from Kiev.

  2. Hard to say but likely. They're completely overwhelmed by Russian airstrikes and artillery barrages. There are some reports of surrenders.

  3. Can't say. Most likely they'll initially set up a puppet government. This is my theory but Ukraine might initially be split into three. A great Novorissiya, a Galician state in Western Ukraine and a Ukrainian rump state in central Ukraine. My guess is they'll overtime annex these countries into Russia. They'll probably hold referendums and ''democratically'' join Russia. Its possible they'll let Galicia be or pawn them off to Poland or Hungary.

  4. Nah. This is pure delusion. Insurgencies need several factors to be successful-

a. A youthful population with lots of surplus males.

b. Inaccessible terrain to hide in.

c. A limp wristed occupying force that is afraid to be ruthless.

None of these will be true for Ukraine. It's a country with a TFR of 1.3 and nations like that don't fight insurgencies. Ukraine is mostly flat indefensible terrain, ideal for tank warfare. No mountains to hide in. The Russians are not limp wristed liberals like the US. They will ruthlessly crush any and all dissent. They've had experience with dealing with insurgencies in Chechnya and they were much more alien to Russians and far more fanatical and violent.

[–]NeoRail 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

They'll probably hold referendums and ''democratically'' join Russia.

Personally, I would be really surprised if that happened. Giving Ukrainians citizenship would just result in the appearance of a Ukrainian political party. I think the more likely scenario is that Russia will annex the ethnically Russian territories of Ukraine and maybe some strategically important border areas. The rest would probably be given to a Russia-aligned Ukrainian military government, along the lines of Belarus.

[–]casparvoneverecBig tiddy respecter[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Russians, Belarussians, and Ukrainians are the same people- that's the crux of Putin's thesis and that Solzhenytsin as well. 41% of Ukrainians agree with that statement. Add in some propaganda and coercion and it would jump to 70% within a few years. There won't be a Ukrainian party. The Moscow government would never allow it.

[–]NeoRail 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

I don't think the Putin government has that level of control over its citizens, otherwise there would be no liberal or nationalist opposition in the country. I do not think that adding tens of millions of Ukrainian voters to the mix would be a good idea.

[–]Richard_Parker 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

The Russians have taken Bewegungskrieg to a new level.

[–]radicalcentristNational Centrism 2 insightful - 2 fun2 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 2 fun -  (0 children)

Missed opportunity:

Blyatskreig

[–]casparvoneverecBig tiddy respecter[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

They learned from the best, from the tender hands of Heinz Guderian and Eric von Manstein.

[–]Blackbrownfreestuff 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

How is any of this possible? I thought the Ukrainians had Javelin missiles. There is like no way to defend against Javelin in top attack mode. It is a super weapon.

[–]TheJamesRocket 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

How is any of this possible? I thought the Ukrainians had Javelin missiles.

We don't know how strong the Ukrainian units opposing the Russians are, or how well stocked they are with ATGMs. For all that we know, the Russians have only been running into weak units with few or no ATGMs.

There is like no way to defend against Javelin in top attack mode. It is a super weapon.

The Javelin is an impressive weapon, but it can't stop an armored attack on its own. Infantrymen with ATGMs will always be overwhelmed by combined arms: Tanks, infantry, and artillery working in concert together. Thats what the Russians are best at.

[–]Blackbrownfreestuff 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Where are the Ukrainian air defenses? Russian jets are flying around unopposed from ground based air defense missile systems. Those Russia helicopters we see flying around could be shot down with stinger missiles. Does the Ukrain military even exist?

[–]ifuckredditsnitches_Resident Pajeet 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

The russians obliterated most of their military infrastructure with the missile attacks last night. Most of the strongest Ukrainian units are jammed fighting battles that don't matter to the war itself.

[–][deleted]  (1 child)

[deleted]

    [–]Blackbrownfreestuff 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

    The airport battle is ongoing and the retake is unconfirmed, but being reported.

    [–]BarebackObamaEthnonationalist 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

    The only two things I'm interested in:

    1. What has been happening with groups like 'Right Sector', 'Azov Battalion', and 'Svoboda'? They've practically disappeared from the media these past few years, and I suspect they've been silently marginalized by the Poroshenko and Zelensky regimes.

    2. Is there any chance that Viktor Yanukovych could return to power, along with his 'Party of Regions'? After all, he's been living in exile in Russia since leaving Ukraine.

    It seems to me the best option for a post-invasion Ukraine is to simply declare Poroshenko, Zelensky and their respective factions illegitimate and that Yanukovych is the true, legitimate leader of the Ukraine. And then essentially act like the country is continuing on from where it left off after having an illegitimate government for eight years or so.

    I remember a whole bunch of Berkut went to Russia either because they were Yanukovych loyalists or felt they would be persecuted in the post-Maidan Ukraine. I'm sure these guys are thrilled right now, since it's time to get back at the Maidanists. I imagine they're probably on the frontlines thinking 'good to be home'.

    [–]ifuckredditsnitches_Resident Pajeet 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

    I heard on one telegram channel that the Azov leadership went to Poland without firing a shot, not sure. There is also one small far right militia that announced they would be carrying out attacks. Svoboda has completely failed in elections and Azov was supposedly just incorporated into the normal military but it seems like they have the sense to watch the kikes destroy each other. The best case scenario for the right is if America and Russia both get involved in a protracted conflict that bankrupts one another. At this point I'm a warhawk from an accelerationist standpoint.