The Covid™ vaccines are causing cancer. (No longer "theory" - upgraded to "unofficially official".)

submitted by xolotltlalo from (twitter.com)

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[–]weavilsatemyface 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

Read the link. Yes it does.

Did you actually manage to read the entire paper without noticing that it is a model???

[–]ActuallyNot 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

You can't find alternative universe, and have everything the same except that they don't vaccinate people, and compare actual deaths.

Obviously you need to estimate deaths that would have happened without vaccination.

Come on man, rent a clue.

[–]weavilsatemyface 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Come on man, rent a clue.

Right back at ya.

You can't take a model as proof or even as evidence that vaccination saved lives. The most you can say is if the assumptions of the model are accurate then maybe the predictions might be useful. Ultimately all model are predictions, not facts, and often they aren't even testable, which makes them just a story.

We know the model is not a good fit for reality. There are a ton of parameters that they can tweak to get any result they want (always a bad sign but sometimes unavoidable). There is no good justification given for many of those parameters, a sign of a model tweaked to get a specific result.

And where there are obvious errors, the errors all point in one direction (exaggerating lives saved by vaccination):

  • It severely overstates the risk of dying from Covid for the unvaxxed, by a factor of at least ten times.
  • It overstates the effectiveness of the vaccines at preventing reinfection.
  • It overstates the effectiveness of the vaccines at preventing transmission.
  • It completely ignores the high risk of severe and serious vaccine harm.

Climate models use hindcasting as a crude sanity check that the model is at least plausible. I see no sign that the people who wrote this paper bothered with anything similar.

[–]ActuallyNot 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

You can't take a model as proof or even as evidence that vaccination saved lives.

Of course you can.

Moreover that's the only way you could do it.

Ultimately all model are predictions,

This model isn't a prediction is it?

There are a ton of parameters that they can tweak to get any result they want

No, the parameters are tweaked to match reality.

It severely overstates the risk of dying from Covid for the unvaxxed, by a factor of at least ten times.

Citation needed

It overstates the effectiveness of the vaccines at preventing reinfection.

Citation needed

It overstates the effectiveness of the vaccines at preventing transmission.

Citation needed

It completely ignores the high risk of severe and serious vaccine harm.

No it doesn't. The model is fitted to excess deaths. Deaths caused by the vaccine would be accounted for.

Climate models use hindcasting as a crude sanity check that the model is at least plausible.

True.

I see no sign that the people who wrote this paper bothered with anything similar.

Did you read the appendix?

https://www.thelancet.com/cms/10.1016/S1473-3099(22)00320-6/attachment/8390f23d-ef7c-4108-b831-ffb5f3c411fb/mmc1.pdf