Depends on how good Chinese intelligence is (which I'm not so sure is that good).

It seems that a group of Western oligarchs are trying to set up WW3. They already built bunkers in NZ to avoid nuclear fallout and have been trying to move Taiwan's semi-conductor chip tech to the US. They'll probably force Taiwan to cross red lines and hope that China will react. If China doesn't react, they may bomb Taiwan and blame it on China.