Extract:

President Joe Biden does not have to fear any primary challengers. His party is stuck with him. This despite some awful polling data that should have pushed the Democrats to retire Joe Biden.

Only 38.9% of voters approve of Biden and his policies while 55.7 % disapprove them. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/

Trump numbers are better. 43.1 % have a favorable opinion of him while 51.8% find him unfavorable. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/

General election polls have Trump leading over Biden by 5%. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/

There is little chance for Biden to turn this around. There is nothing in the policy queue that could be seen as a win for him. On domestic issues he is limited by a Republican majority in the House. Problem areas are the perceived state of the economy as well his failure to stop mass immigration. He is also losing in the foreign policy frame. His war in Ukraine is near total failure and the U.S. position in the Middle East is about to explode.

Trump still has dozens of open (kangaroo) court cases against him. But it is doubtful that any court will truly dare to put the leading presidential candidate into jail. In the end a conservative Supreme Court, and enraged Republican voters, would anyway find a way to get Trump out of the mess.

On foreign policy issues Trump has a rather dubious record. But I agree with Stephen Walt who finds that there are only few differences between Trump's and Biden's foreign policies. It is the deep state which is anyway formulating as well as executing them. {https://archive.is/QxgQg Another Trump Presidency Won’t Much Change U.S. Foreign Policy. The world’s fears are mostly exaggerated.}

But is still more likely that Trump will find a way out of the mess in Ukraine than Biden. Trump is also way less a Zionist than Biden. His opinion about Netanyahoo and settlers is generally low. {https://israelpalestinenews.org/trump-blasts-netanyahu-fk-him-he-never-wanted-a-deal/}

My opinion on Trump is unchanged. He is just a run of the mill U.S. president. His biggest fault is his inability to select good people and to keep control over what they are doing. Previous Trump selections like McMaster, Bolton or Pompeo were all too radical and treacherous. They should never have been chosen. For someone who once had a reality show about selecting apprentices that is an astonishingly bad record. {https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/H._R._McMaster - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Bolton https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Pompeo }

Or, as Stephen Walt expresses it: https://archive.is/QxgQg

To be clear, I’m not saying that this election will have zero effect on U.S. foreign policy. Trump may try to take the United States out of NATO, for example, although such a move would undoubtedly face enormous resistance from the foreign and defense policy establishment. He may focus primarily on his domestic agenda—and his lingering legal troubles—which would further reduce his already-limited interest in foreign affairs and tend to reinforce the existing status quo. Trump was a poor judge of foreign-policy talent during his first term (and provoked unprecedented rates of staff turnover), and that tendency may hamstring U.S. policy implementation and lead foreign governments to hedge even more. There would be subtle differences between Biden 2 and Trump 2, but I’d bet against a radical transformation.

My concern with U.S. foreign policy is the huge damage it is causing all over the world. I see Trump as the better candidate to minimize that. He has avoided wars as far as the deep state allowed him to do so.

One can not say that of Biden.