The situation on the northern Israeli border is escalating. It is likely to soon evolve into a full fledged war. The situation is already increasing the economic price Israel has to pay for its misdeeds.

The international rating agency Moody's has downgraded Israel's credit rating. [https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/02/moodys-just-told-you-so-downgrades-israel-warns-that-weaker-us-backing-for-israel-war-with-hezbollah-would-trigger-crash.html ] This will lead to higher interest payments on Israeli government debt:

In a report dated last Friday but not issued until Saturday, the Jewish sabbath, the agency officially reduced Israel’s rating from A1 to A2, and added pointers of further downgrading to come. The Anglo-American press immediately reacted against Moody’s.

“Israel hits back”, the Financial Times https://archive.is/ecS6p headlined. The newspaper added: “[Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu, in a rare statement over the Jewish Sabbath, [https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-moodys-smotrich-netanyahu-economy-4272d00b1626a4a8390a84def7196d99 ] said: ‘The rating downgrade is not connected to the economy, it is entirely due to the fact that we are in a war. The rating will go back up the moment we win the war — and we will win the war.’” In the Associated Press report, “Israel’s finance minister blasts Moody’s downgrade”. Rupert Murdoch’s platform Fox [https://www.foxbusiness.com/video/6325282739112 ] claimed: “Israel has a strong, open economy despite Moody’s downgrade”. “Israel’s creditworthiness remains high,” according to the New York Times [https://archive.ph/uCdUa ], “but the rating agency noted that the outlook for the country was negative… A rating of A2 is still a high rating.”

There are several negative issues that could lead to a further downgrading:

According to Moody’s report, “downside risks remain at the A2 rating level. In particular, the risk of an escalation involving Hezbollah in the North of Israel remains, which would have a potentially much more negative impact on the economy than currently assumed under Moody’s baseline scenario. Government finances would also be under more intense pressure in such a scenario.”

Shortly after the Moody's report appeared Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah set out to increase the [https://english.almanar.com.lb/2044825 ] pressure on Israel:

Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah reiterated that Hezbollah will continue its border offensive against the Israeli occupation sites near Lebanon border till the Zionist barbaric war on Gaza ends. “When the aggression on Gaza stops fire will be ceased in South Lebanon,” Sayyed Nasrallah said.

Hezbollah Secretary General commented on the recent threats made by the Zionist defense minister Yoav Gallant who said that the IOF will not stop aggression on South Lebanon even after Gaza ceasefire, stressing that, then, Hezbollah will continue its offensive.

“When the war on Gaza ends, we will stop our offensive. If the enemy resumes its hostilities, we will, act in light of the rules and the formulas.”

Nasrallah rejected western demands, passed through the Lebanese government, to pull back Hizbullah's forces and to cease fire:

It is Hezbollah duty and responsibility to deter the enemy and prevent the assault on Lebanon, Sayyed Nasrallah affirmed, adding that the Resistance responses will be proportionate, yet effective and productive. Sayyed Nasrallah stressed that the hundreds of thousands of settlers already displaced from the North will not be able to return to their homes in case of escalation.

‘Israel’ must prepare shelters, basements, hotels and schools to house 2 million settlers who will be displaced from northern Palestine if it expands the war zone, Sayyed Nasrallah warned.

If the Israeli enemy expands its war zone against Lebanon, Hezbollah will do too, Sayyed Nasrallah emphasized.

“It is easier to move Litani River forward to the borders than pushing back Hezbollah fighters from the borders to the Litani River,” Sayyed Nasrallah said.

More will be announced later:

Sayyed Nasrallah stressed that ‘Israel’ has failed over 130 days to achieve any target in Gaza war, except the monstrous attacks on the civilians.

Concerning the Zionist war on Gaza, Sayyed Nasrallah stressed that he will address more details about during a speech he is scheduled to deliver on Friday (February 16) the anniversary of Hezbollah Martyr Commanders.

Rarely mentioned in western news is the extend of Hizbullah's activities against the [https://x.com/AryJeay/status/1757755955087909000?s=20 ] military of the Zionist entity:

Al-Manar correspondent:

The resistance in Southern Lebanon, has so far attacked:

• HQ of the Northern Region Command in Safad.

• Command HQ of the 91st Galilee Division in “Branit”

• HQ of the 769th Eastern Brigade in Kiryat Shmona.

• Meron Air command and control base

• Beit Hillel IOF base

• Training camp in Kela, in the occupied Golan Heights

• Ma’ale Golan IOF base on Mount Hermon

• Most artillery positions along the rear front and military concentrations

• Every single border military IOF sites

All of these attacks carried out by the resistance confirm that all military and fire pressure and Israeli threats will not deter it from continuing its operations. The resistance is proceeding with full confidence, first relaying on God, and then its military capabilities, the spirit of its fighters, and the resilience of its people.

The Safad headquarter site was only hit this morning. This followed after more Israeli attacks had hit civilian structures in southern Lebanon.

Hala Jaber @HalaJaber - 23:01 UTC · Feb 13, 2024

URGENT: #Hezbollah fired a barrage of rockets targeting an army base #Israel’s northern city of Safed.

One reportedly killed & eight wounded, one in serious condition.

The IDF said some of the rockets hit the Northern Command headquarters base in #Safed, some 13 kilometers (8 miles) from the Lebanese border.

Hitting Safad was a (mild) escalation after previous attacks.

Unlike the daily Palestinian victims of Israel's brutality, the Israeli casualties of the strike created headlines [https://www.timesofisrael.com/one-killed-8-injured-as-rocket-barrage-from-lebanon-hits-safed/ ] in Israel:

An Israeli woman was killed and eight others were wounded as a barrage of rockets fired from Lebanon slammed into Safed and an army base in the northern city, the military and medical officials said.

In response to the attack, the IDF said it launched “widespread” airstrikes in Lebanon.

There was no immediate claim for the rocket fire, although it was believed to have been carried out by the Hezbollah terror group, which has been launching daily rocket, missile, and drone attacks on northern Israel in recent months, saying it is doing so in support of the Hamas terror group in Gaza, against whom Israel is waging war.

The Israel Defense Forces and Safed’s municipality said rockets hit an army base in the area, some 13 kilometers (8 miles) from the Lebanon border.

The casualty count on Israel's northern border is still very uneven:

So far, the skirmishes on the border have resulted in six civilian deaths on the Israeli side, as well as the deaths of at least nine IDF soldiers and reservists. There have also been several attacks from Syria, without any injuries. Hezbollah has named 194 members who have been killed by Israel during the ongoing skirmishes, mostly in Lebanon but some also in Syria. In Lebanon, another 29 operatives from other terror groups, a Lebanese soldier, and some two dozen civilians, three of whom were journalists, have been killed.

If Israel does not evacuated more settlers, at high economic costs, the casualty ratio is likely to change.

The Lebanese Hezbollah expert Amal Saad, who is currently teaching in Cardiff, Britain, explained Hizbullah's thinking:

Amal Saad @amalsaad_lb - 10:58 UTC · Feb 14, 2024 [https://x.com/amalsaad_lb/status/1757720876466762235?s=20 ]

There are several messages behind Hizbullah's qualitatively different strike on Safed this morning, which Israel is treating as the gravest attack since the start of the war, with Ben Gvir calling it a "declaration of war".

At the forefront, is Hizbullah's message that it won't capitulate to Israeli and western demands that it cease hostilities across the border, as per Nasrallah's speech yesterday. It's also a response to several Israeli assassination strikes in South Lebanon, reaching as deep as Sidon.

But the timing of this escalation also appears to be related to Netanyahu's scuppering of the Paris cease-fire proposal and his government's threats to invade Rafah, which in turn, would make a full-out attack on Lebanon more likely. Hizbullah is giving Israel a taster of the type of strikes and casualty tolls its military will have to bear, should Netanyahu continue to reject a cease-fire.

Predictably the Israeli occupation forces responded to the strike on Safad by escalating further:

The Israeli military said Wednesday its fighter jets "began a series of strikes in Lebanon", raising fears of a war between the two countries after months of cross-border fire.

The military gave no further details of the air strikes, while Lebanese media reported air raids on southern villages including Adchit, Sawwaneh and Shihabiyeh.

The strikes came hours after fire from Lebanon wounded multiple people in northern Israel, according to medics.

Fears have been growing of another full-blown conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, with tens of thousands displaced on both sides of the border and regional tensions soaring.

"I don't know when the war in the north is, I can tell you that the likelihood of it happening in the coming months is much higher than it was in the past," Israeli military chief Herzi Halevi said last month.

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