Yeah that's the thing right, we can only look at results as the best evidence for the motivations behind events and thus, their origin. The people organizing these things are crafty and it's also ALL THEY DO, and they are armed with immense resources. I wouldn't be surprised if they had an AI able to gauge perfectly the reactions of the public to any given event. For us, that means knowing what's really happening only after the fact. Sometimes long after. And that's not good enough, obviously.