I used to think these were the two groups too, but lately I'm concerned that the first category might be something like internalized homophobia or some other weird, but chronic, mental trap. I actually think there are 4 groups

• Group 1: AGP on speed: Narcissistic trolls. These will be the Jessica Yanivs of the world.
• Group 2: AGP. A sexual fetish that due to TRA people lean a bit too much into.
• Group 3: Easily manipulated youth and young adults with mental health issues or autism. These include rapid onset gender dysphoria etc.
• Group 4: Gay kids who are easily manipulated/tricked and trapped by TRA "theories"

All long-time studies of children with gender dysphoria (Tavistock, Scandinavian studies, they're not many, they have flaws, but they are all we got) have shown that these children in 90%+ of cases grow up to accept their sex as their gender and turn out to be gay. So your argument is that ~10% of these kids are "truly" trans, but I am leaning to them just never getting to the acceptance stage for some reason. I do however think that this distinction does not matter for how they should ideally be treated with regards to policy and legislation. Let them live as chosen "gender", but let's keep certain biological categories a matter of "sex" (sports, jails etc). The problem is that when you open up for these people to live as chosen gender, it opens the door for all the other groups to force themselves in through the same opening. We can't actually test for category 4. It's all or nothing. And "all" is currently shredding institutions and societal fabrics apart.