all 1 comments

[–]eiyukabe 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

"This is why the trans murder rate is so high" In actuality, the trans murder rate (in the US at least) is less than the non-trans murder rate. This is a comment along with some research and math that I did on reddit (just got 7 day banned for a similar comment from that regressive hellhole):

I've done the math myself, usually by looking it up. For example, by October 14, 2020, 32 trans people were killed, which was a "record number" -- https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/10/14/transgender-murders-reach-least-32-year-surpassing-record/3639313001/. Now let's do some math:

There are 31 days in December, and 30 in November, and 17 days after October 14th in October. Meaning there are 78 days left in the year. 2020 is a leap year, so it has 366 days. 366 - 78 = 288, meaning those 32 deaths happened in 288 days, for a rate of one death every 9 days. Therefore we can expect 8.6 more deaths to happen for the rest of the year, assuming the same rate. Let's round up to 9; we can guess that 41 trans people were killed in the US in 2020.

I can't quickly find a source for the number of people murdered in the US in 2020 (possibly because 2020 ended about a month ago and the data hasn't been fully calculated), but in 2019 there were 16,425 homicides: https://www.statista.com/statistics/191134/reported-murder-and-nonnegligent-manslaughter-cases-in-the-us-since-1990/. Assuming that the trans murder rate was roughly the same and that 41 trans people were killed in 2019, we can subtract that from the total of 16,425 to infer that 16,384 non-trans people were killed. The percentage of murder victims that were trans is thus 0.25% (41/16,425). Now, if 0.25% of US citizens are trans, then the murder rate is what we expect. If it's less, then trans people get murdered more. If it's more, then they get murdered less. It's hard to find exactly how many people are trans -- I've heard it as high as 1.7% or so. The survey cited here puts it at 0.46%: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGBT_demographics_of_the_United_States. I have never seen it as low as 0.25%. So based on simple calculations, trans people are murdered at a lesser rate than non-trans people.

But I compared 2020 to 2019 (because I couldn't find the full data), so let's try to compare the same year to the same year. Going back to 2018, we find the following:

26 trans homicides (in the US) in 2018-- https://www.hrc.org/resources/violence-against-the-transgender-community-in-2019

16,374 total homicides (in the US) in 2018 -- https://www.statista.com/statistics/191134/reported-murder-and-nonnegligent-manslaughter-cases-in-the-us-since-1990/

Doing the math, 0.16% of homicides in the US in 2018 involved trans people as victims. And again, their representation in the population is roughly 0.46%. Higher by some studies, and I don't think I've seen it lower. The number I hold in my head as a rough estimate when I don't need to cite it is 0.7%, as it is the number I've heard the most. So barring a mathematical error, you were 3 times as likely to be murdered in 2018 if you were not trans than if you were. Yet the trans movement uses the fact that they are sometimes murdered to push an agenda and legal/societal changes on everyone else, despite the fact that the people having these views pushed on them are in the group more likely to be murdered. What fun!