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[–]GConly 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

A basic level of social distancing will make it spike high as soon as the social distancing ends,

I dont think so. It should just revert back to it normal slow growth curve, not suddenly spike.

Flu cases normally peak in Jan because of the low R number, 1.25 ish. The increase starts in September but it's a very slow increase. For example if we hadn't interfered with Covid, Covid it would have peaked at the end of November. It's peaking now in the UK.

If you interfere with the early stages of flu to stop about four months of growth early, you could basically skip that years flu season as it would start to hit it's peak just as the weather warmed up.