Iran is definitely Israel's mightiest military threat, but the truth of that matter is Israel doesn't have a viable way to deal with Hizbullah militarily.

In the past 48 hours or so, Hizbullah inflicted 20-30 casualties on Israel's northern front - all wounded, but some in critical condition.

Hizbullah has perfect visibility into northern Israel. It is equipped to precisely hit targets deep into Israel's north, all along the Israel-Lebanon border.

Hizbullah has hundreds of thousands of precise missiles, and it has excellent intelligence on Israeli positions and infrastructure. It has fighters who undergo some of the best military training available, and it has 30 years of guerilla warfare experience fighting against all relevant units of the IDF - including the absolute best.

Hizbullah has advanced weaponry for intercepting sea and air targets, and one of the biggest anti-tank arsenals in the world.

What complicates things much further is the fact that Hizbullah can escalate from 0-100 in two minutes. If the right order is given, thousands of rockets, missiles, and drones will make their way to Israel within minutes.

It doesn't need to mobilize and get reserves ready. it is war-ready at every minute. The IDF needs an extended period of time to prepare a major offensive: Hizbullah can do it in the time it takes you to make coffee.

And how will Israel prepare an offensive when Hizbulla tracks every movement many kilometers into Israel? How will the IDF get tens of thousands of soldiers to the northern border under an extremely heavy storm of precise missile and drone attacks, and shelling? Israel cannot do a wide reserve mobilization quietly. Once it even begins to prepare to attack Lebanon, Hizbullah will launch its own attack, wreaking havoc on civilian life and infrastructure, and making the mobilization effort a huge and bloody challenge.

Israel's air force is very powerful, but it doesn't win wars anymore. It didn't win the 2006 war with Hizbullah, and it will not be able to paralyze Hizbullah today. And, with heavy targeting of air bases expected as part of any major conflict, and with new air defense systems and strategies at play, Israel cannot rely on its air force to give it time to prepare a ground offensive.

Traditionally Israel played the role of the neighborhood bully that no one can stop. But now, facing tough competition for the first time in two generations, it is fast losing much of its invincibility aura. The stupid and inhumane Gaza campaign really only weakened Israel militarily, leaving it wounded, tired, and with almost zero room for maneuver of any kind.

Israel is pushed into a corner. Wisely, Iran did not make it quite existential as yet. It is playing a long game, acting like it knows it has the upper hand, but also knowing its position, relative to Israel's, is always getting more advantageous for Iran.
- Israel is paying now for the mistake it made by invading Lebanon and trying to colonize it in 1982. That vain attempt created Hizbullah. What the Gaza genocide will birth into existence, we can only guess.