This submission will be edited if the situation changes. Thumbnail
Sources
ABC News
NPR
270 to Win
How much of the vote is in?
ABC News estimates 99%, NPR estimates 92%, and 270 estimates 98.2%. If you want to be safe, I'd go with 92%. Regardless, it seems safe to call the elections in Arkansas at this time.
President
Donald Trump crushed Joe Biden with 62.6% of the vote. This was expected, since Arkansas has been deep red for years. Biden only got 34.6% of the vote, which is barely over 1/3. Other candidates got around 2.8%.
This will surprise nobody, but the most successful third party candidate was Libertarian Jo Jorgensen, with 1.1% of the vote. The worst-performing candidate was Rocky De La Fuente (who I voted for) with 1.3k votes. (Though Gloria La Riva isn't too far ahead.) These numbers are quite likely to change as more votes come in, since the impact of a single vote is much larger for these candidates.
It seems like third party and Independent voters broke for either Trump or Biden, since both parties performed better than in 2016, while the other vote went down by around 3%. This is likely a symptom of increasing polarization.
US Senate
Republican Tom Cotton won re-election with 66.7% of the vote, while his sole challenger, a Libertarian: Ricky Harrington got 33.3%. This race was quite interesting, because the Democrat dropped-out early on. There was originally an Independent, Dan Whitfield, however, he was unable to obtain enough signatures for ballot access (he stopped collection due to Covid).
I originally assumed Democrats, Independents, and third party voters would form a coalition against Cotton and make the race a bit closer, but in reality Harrington performed worse than Mark Pryor, the last Democratic challenger to Cotton — though I will note that he was an incumbent who lost re-election.
US House
All four House districts when to Republicans.
District 1
Republican Rick Crawford won unopposed.
District 2
Republican French Hill won with 55.6% of the vote. This was a closer race, because District 2 includes the predominantly democrat Pulaski county.
District 3
Republican Steve Womack won with 64.6% of the vote. Interestingly, Libertarian Michael Kalagias won with 3.9% of the vote.
District 4
Republican Bruce Westerman won by the widest margin, with 69.8% of the vote. Libertarian Frank Gilbert got 2.8% of the vote, which isn't as good as H3, but better than the Libertarians performed in the presidential race.
Ballot Measures
1 - Transportation Sales Tax
Passed with 55% of the vote.
2 - Changes Term Limits For State Legislators
Passed with 55% of the vote. The name is a bit misleading, since it allows legislators to serve longer than previously, so long as they take a four-year break every so often. I think it would've been voted down had this been made clear to voters.
3 - Amend Ballot Initiatives Process
Failed with 56% against. Don't fuck with our ballot initiatives.
6 - Practice of Optometry
This was removed from the ballot by the Supreme Court of Arkansas, however, still appeared on some ballots (including mine).
Arkansas House
Source
The results aren't yet in for all districts. This section will be changed later once more elections are called. It can be assumed, however, that the Republicans will keep their super-majority.
A great deal of candidates, mostly Republicans, but some Democrats, ran unopposed, thus won by default. Two Independents and four Libertarians ran for election, but all lost.
there doesn't seem to be anything here