What if George Floyd’s killer is acquitted?

Of course, such facts don’t prove the case one way or another, and no doubt more evidence will be introduced in the trial. But they should lead people to have a more open mind about Chauvin’s guilt, and whether that guilt rises to the level of murder. Watching that awful, horrible video, it’s clear to me that Chauvin is reckless – he’s negligent in ignoring Floyd’s pleas and spurning suggestions from a firefighter to help with Floyd’s breathing, and the force he is applying is excessive. But all of that arguably fits better with a manslaughter charge than murder. It’s noteworthy that the charge of third-degree murder was reintroduced to the case recently, which is easier to prove than the original second-degree murder charge.

Given this, you have to wonder: has the prosecution overreached in trying to convict Chauvin of murder? And did it do so for political reasons, to show its commitment to the broader anti-racism struggle? By reaching for a murder charge, the prosecution has raised the public’s expectations, while increasing the chances that Chauvin might be acquitted. Now, even if the jury finds Chauvin guilty of the crime of manslaughter, it will be viewed by some as a letdown and an injustice.

The media are doing the public a disservice by assuming Chauvin’s guilt, and not taking counter-arguments seriously. It needs to be said: it is possible that Chauvin may be acquitted of murder – and that might be a just outcome. Instead, we are in a situation where an acquittal of Chauvin is already considered – before he has even gone on trial, and before we or the jury have heard the evidence – as a totally unacceptable and unjust result.

What’s typically unsaid, but implied, is that anything less than a murder conviction and long prison sentence for Chauvin will be worthy of mass outrage, protest and rioting. By framing the Chauvin trial as an open-and-shut case of racist murder, political and media figures are effectively saying that rioting will be an understandable and justifiable response if the verdict is acquittal. Like Minneapolis officials who have constructed a militarised fortress around the courthouse, they are expecting a riot – and not just in Minneapolis. Last summer, liberal pundits rationalised and excused the riots and arson that took off across the country in the wake of Floyd’s death. Today they are green-lighting the riots before they happen.

Opening arguments in the Chauvin trial are scheduled to start on 29 March, and the trial is likely to last for months. The proceedings will be televised, and the public will be watching closely. It’s going to be a challenging time, and we can expect that people hearing the same evidence will reach different conclusions. Simplistic arguments from political actors pursuing an agenda will only exacerbate tensions and divide us further.