WorldPolitics

OzwinEVCG · 2024-05-01T15:47:46+00:00

https://gab.com/OzwinEVCG/posts/112363417086026504/media/1

OzwinEVCG · 2024-04-30T23:38:56+00:00

https://gab.com/OzwinEVCG/posts/112362792856366548

jerryk · 2024-04-26T15:46:50+00:00

I was listening to Russian radio yesterday evening, Radio Svoboda, Freedom Radio, their "Archive Project", which every weekday evening presents historical analyses related to society and world culture. I was surprised to hear that the entire hour was devoted Nikita Khrushchev, and, in particular his visit to America in 1957. Now, there are certain rulers in Russia's past that are quite regularly dealt with in the Russian media -- Ivan the Terrible, Peter the Great, Stalin. These were the great "Iron Men" of Russian history, who ruled for a long time, and accomplished great things. Khrushchev was not one of these. He was only in charge for about eight years, and, he was ignominiously shuffled off to exile in Siberia, largely because of his nearly cataclysmically disastrous miscalculations during the Cuban Missile Crisis. In general, when he is portrayed at all in Russian films, it is as a crude buffoon and a clown, who has no idea how ridiculous he appears. However, in this particular radio program yesterday evening, he was portrayed rather positively, as a liberal reformer, who improved relations with the U.S., and made life easier and freer for the average Russian. Which, of course, in general, he certainly did.

You see, it now appears virtually certain that Vladimir Putin will achieve his objectives in Ukraine. This latest rather large assistance package from the U.S. does not include any offensive weapons at all, it will not give the Ukrainian military any ability to actually retake even an inch of territory, and it is quite clear even President Zelensky does not anticipate any Ukrainian military offensives in future. Why is this, exactly?

Well, you see, the fact is, the Ukrainians are out of manpower. The Russians have successfully exterminated the entire Ukrainian military force, although President Zelensky will never admit this, of course. This is notable in the ability of the Russians to now advance unopposed for miles at a time, there's simply no one around to fill the gaps in the Ukrainian front line of defense in their own country. So, the American and Ukrainian governments are claiming that all they need, now that the U.S. Congress has made available a large support package, is to conscript another 400,000 or so young Ukrainian men for the military. Unfortunately, there aren't any left in Ukraine itself, so, they were thinking that, perhaps, some 400,000 Ukrainian men of military age who have fled to Poland might like to lend a hand.

How likely is this, exactly? I mean, they've already fled the fighting when people thought they had a pretty good chance of winning, why would they want to go back to face certain death against the Russians, now that they know that they're going to lose, anyway? That doesn't really make a lot of sense, does it? So, the Polish government is saying they are considering "deporting" them, back to Ukraine. The problem with this particular idea is, that these Ukrainian men might well prefer ending up in a Polish prison, to going back to face certain death against the Russians in Ukraine. Or, they might be very tempted indeed by the prospect of being on the winning side, and fighting for the Russians, instead. Or, if he's really clever, and he usually is, you know, Vladimir Putin might simply offer all those 400,000 Ukrainian men in Poland some nice, good paying factory work in Russia, to help with the Russian labor shortage. Lots of options, all, much, much better than fighting for Mr. Zelensky, you see.

So, it appears fairly certain that Mr. Zelensky will not be getting his 400,000 conscripts. And, even he admits that without them, it won't be possible to "stabilize" the situation in Ukraine -- that is, prevent the Russians from totally overwhelming the country, at will. In other words, within a year or two, Ukraine will, once more, effectively be a province of Russia, virtually in its entirety, and will never, ever be joining NATO, which, actually is what this war was really all about.

So, Russians are looking forward to a period of peace, prosperity and development for their nation, in possession of new resources and security from control of Ukraine, in its entirety. And, with Mr. Putin's retirement, in a few years, they may well have a "liberal leader" in place, who can ease international relations and tensions, and give them a freedom of speech perhaps even comparable to that of the U.S., for a time. Remember, it was under Nikita Khruschev that Alexander Solzhenitsyn -- who eventually wrote the Gulag Archipelago -- was released from prison, first became a writer, and, his first book, "Life with Marya", wasn't even censored by the Soviets, and had a good run at the bookstores. Khruschev even made something of a hit in his visit to the U.S., engaging in mock-aggressive debates with then Vice-President Richard Nixon about the comparative merits of communism and capitalism. So, while Americans are contemplating civil war on their University campuses and the possibility of an elected President having to run the country from a prison cell, the Russians are rather looking forward to a new Golden Age for Holy Mother Russia!

jerryk · 2024-04-22T15:59:38+00:00

I'm old enough to remember the end of the Vietnam War, and the obsession of the Pentagon to achieving "Peace, with Honor." The original idea of South Vietnam, had been that Ho Chi Minh would be satisfied with the North, and would leave the South alone. By the early nineteen-sixties, it was quite clear that this was not the case, and the U.S. was becoming more and more involved, ultimately having more than half a million troops trying to hold the line in South Vietnam. They were able to do it, but, at terrific, and unsustainable cost. So, by the 1970's, the agenda had shifted somewhat. Instead of expecting the South to manage on their own, the hope was that expensive U.S. weapons and regular bombings of North Vietnam would be sufficient to control the situation, without the need for U.S. troops on the ground. This would be "Peace, with Honor." Of course, that didn't work either, and in April 1975 we saw the helicopters jammed with refugees taking off from the U.S. Embassy, as the South Vietnamese troops were routed by the Viet Cong.

I've been comparing the U.S. intervention in South Vietnam, with the current U.S. intervention in Ukraine, for a couple of years now. And, again, as in South Vietnam, there have been stages and changes in the U.S. attitude. At first, the U.S. thought the Russians would be perfectly happy with the Ukrainians joining NATO, or, in any case, couldn't do anything about it. Then, when the Russians invaded, basically to defend their own space in the world, the U.S. thought they could overwhelm the Russians with their "superior" NATO weapons. This stage culminated last year, in 2023, when over 100 billion dollars were provided to Ukraine, much of it in the form of so-called "advanced", that is, incredibly expensive, offensive NATO weapons, like state of the art tanks. The idea was that these superb, invincible NATO tanks would quickly crash though the inferior Russian defenses, and rush to the Black Sea in a Blitzkrieg that would make the Crimea indefensible, and would force the Russians to realize that they were no match for the brilliant NATO scientists and engineers who designed them.

Of course, we now know what actually happened. The NATO tanks were all scrap within weeks, hundreds of them, untold Ukrainians died for nothing, and the Ukrainians scarcely advanced an inch. In response to this abysmal failure, there has now been a major "paradigm shift", in terms of the American approach in Ukraine. Instead of seeking victory over the Russians, the entire theme, instead, is to emphasize that the Ukrainians are in immediate danger of being overwhelmingly defeated, and the U.S. must provide the Ukrainians the means to avert this supposed disaster -- again, as in the early 1970's, the U.S. is seeking "Peace, with Honor". There are no offensive weapons as part of the current 60 billion dollar support package to Ukraine -- just artillery, ammunition, training, intelligence and missiles. The Ukrainians cannot advance, and, indeed, they aren't even attempting to do so, anymore. Rather, supposedly, this should, at the very least, "slow the Russians down".

What for, exactly? Well, quite frankly, I don't think anyone really knows. In a very general sense, the U.S. seems to want to stay involved to a significant degree, even if the only effect, as it has been so far, is to make the Russian military and the Russian economy much stronger, and to kill enormous numbers of Ukrainians. The U.S. just wants to keep its hand in, because, that's what the U.S. does!