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[–]magnora7[S] 5 insightful - 1 fun5 insightful - 0 fun6 insightful - 1 fun -  (30 children)

But Russia is the one attacking Ukraine... you seem to have it backward. A bunch of missiles were just launched from Russia in to Ukraine, not the other way around. Russia is the clear aggressor in this situation.

[–]fschmidt 2 insightful - 2 fun2 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 2 fun -  (0 children)

Imagine if some tyrant took control of Canada, made an alliance with China, and then China installed missiles in Canada on the American border. America wouldn't tolerate this and would take military action to prevent it. This is basically the scenario that Russia was facing with Ukraine where the leader clearly wants to join NATO and the America has refused to promise that this won't happen. This forced Putin to preemptively act to prevent this from happening.

I personally see Russia as the last refuge of western civilization. The West has become an evil satanic globalist cesspool that threatens all decency in the world. So I am extremely grateful to Putin for taking decisive action to defend Russia.

[–]jet199 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

It's just a game to a lot of these keyboard warriors, just ignore.

[–]magnora7[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

I'm not writing it for them, I'm writing it for the other people reading

[–]StillLessons 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (24 children)

You're viewing the trees and forgetting the forest. Yes, today Russia is attacking Ukraine. But motivation absolutely matters here. Russia is attacking Ukraine after 8 years of trying to work behind the scenes to ensure that the ethnic Russians on their border maintained a voice over their own affairs. Ukraine has for nearly a decade effectively told the culturally Russian population in the Donbass, "Submit and adopt our culture, or die." That Russian population for 8 years has been unwilling to accept the Ukrainian government as representing them. But within the borders of the Donbass republics, they don't have the resources to repel the Ukranian state. They need Russia for that, and Russia has decided to act for them.

I'm willing to stand and say clearly, "Russia doesn't want Ukraine". Under Putin, they never have. They do want the Donbass, because the Donbass is filled with the Russian diaspora. If I'm proven wrong on that, I'll adjust as events adjust. But at this moment, it doesn't take a lot of reading between the lines to see when Russia has acted, and equally important, when they have not.

Do you believe the Ukrainian state would exist in its current form if Victoria Nuland and her cadre hadn't set it up as they did and if they didn't continue to subsidize it?

Russia is attacking today. But this war didn't start yesterday. The past 8 years of context puts this action in a very different light.

[–]magnora7[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (22 children)

I agree the Donbass has a much higher percentage of russians, as this wiki picture verifies: https://i2.wp.com/upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/68/Russians_Ukraine_2001.PNG/640px-Russians_Ukraine_2001.PNG

"Russia doesn't want Ukraine". They never have. They do want the Donbass

Then why did they shoot missiles at Kiev today? Kiev is not near Donbass. This is the worrying part. They're clearly trying to take the whole country, unfortunately.

[–]StillLessons 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (21 children)

Later Update Edit: I was wrong. I concede that this is now about Russia taking the entirety of Ukraine. I leave my comments below from mere hours ago, but Putin has decided he must eliminate the regime in Ukraine. This won't work out well for Russia, but we won't know the true shape of results for days yet.


I don't think so. Modern war never stays within the boundaries any more. The Russians are working to deny the Ukrainians the ability to fight. If the Russians just fight within the Donbass, then the Ukrainians continue to pour their resources from outside the region into the region. The Russians are eliminating Ukraine's warfighting ability. This is standard modern military theory. The west does this as well, as we've all witnessed for decades.

[–]magnora7[S] 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (20 children)

Okay, we'll see in a week or two if he is able to remain in the Donbass region, or if it's a creeping expansion that includes all of Ukraine. It seems unlikely he will remain in Donbass given the Kiev bombings.

Just remember Hitler's campaign to take Europe started with him militarily annexing a part of Czechoslovakia because that part it was ethnically German... This is also standard modern military theory.

[–]Zapped 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (8 children)

You are on point with your analysis. Putin said he had no plans to invade. Then he invaded after "recognizing" the independent regions. Then Putin said he had no plans to invade the rest of Ukraine. He has now done that. He says it is to neutralize Ukraine's ability to retake those areas. The trend is that he will invade and occupy all of Ukraine and install a Russian-backed regime and stage military assets at the borders.

[–]StillLessons 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (7 children)

"Invade" is still a strong word for what Russia is doing. As your comment notes, invasion requires occupation. Russia is certainly engaging miiltarily outside of the Donbass, but I don't yet see the evidence of sufficient manpower to actually put boots on the ground throughout Ukraine. The drain on Russia at that point would become unsustainable. Russia doesn't have the logistical capacity to act as the invaders of Ukraine you are painting them as. Putin - while a sociopath like all global leaders - has a documented history of acting in very controlled ways. He doesn't overextend himself. He does only that of which he is capable, and Russia is not capable of holding Ukraine against popular opposition. They can't do it, so he won't do it.

[–]Zapped 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (6 children)

I never said invasion requires occupation. Putin has repeatedly lied about his intentions so far and the West, along with ALL the U.S. intelligence agencies have been proven correct. I was hopeful that Putin was saber-rattling, but he has proven himself to do what the West said he would do. As far as overextending himself, we'll see how that plays out. He is taking what he can get away with, and my guess is that he will stop only when he feels like he is about to go too far. If Russian troops continue to take losses, he may even loose more than he thought he gambled.

[–]StillLessons 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (5 children)

Your words:

The trend is that he will invade and occupy all of Ukraine and install a Russian-backed regime and stage military assets at the borders.

The Russians are cornered. It's one thing for us to talk about this from our secure spaces. This isn't happening in Canada or Mexico. Talking about Russia "taking what he can get away with" ignores the primal cultural fear the Russians have had for centuries of invasion from the west. That fear is well founded; Russia has been invaded from the west many times. The assumption behind western intelligence is that Russia is an expansionary empire-desiring construct. Please keep a map or a globe in your mind on this. Where is the fighting? Which side is far from home, and whose border are we talking about here? I do feel for the Ukranian people here; it's not their fault. But the Ukranian government has chosen to ally itself with an empire based out of North America who has no skin in the game. The Russians absolutely have skin in the game; ethnic Russians live in what was Ukraine, and the Ukranian government treated them like crap.

The knee-jerk "The Russians are the bad guys!" reaction in the west has been instilled in us for a century now, but do you really believe the Ukranian government - and most especially the US puppetmasters behind them - are innocence and light? This is not a simple, peace-loving bunch of hippies we're talking about. The atrocities committed from the Ukranian side are equally real as those committed by the Russians. This isn't "evil Russia" vs. Goldilocks. It's "evil Russia" vs "evil Ukraine, backed by Victoria Nuland".

[–]Zapped 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (4 children)

You are making up statements and sentiments I have not said. Again, you are confusing invasion and occupation. While you can't have occupation without invasion you can have invasion without occupation. I never said that the West was innocent and that Putin is not scared that he is losing power over his neighbors. I was stating facts that Putin has acted exactly as predicted weeks ago. This helps make the case that he will continue on this path. You are welcome to your opinions about why, and I appreciate learning, but actions are actions.

[–]StillLessons 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (9 children)

I agree. The situation is fluid. I could be wrong. I'm just putting myself in Putin's shoes and thinking what I would do.

The background for Russia's current action is that Russians within Donbass found Ukranian rule unacceptable, leading Ukraine to the impossible situation of trying to hold the territory against popular opposition.

If Russia takes Ukraine, that dynamic is reversed. Then Russia would be occcupying territory where the population doesn't want them. The western Ukrainians hate the Russians as much as the Donbass Russians hate Ukraine.

Putin knows this. In the Donbass, he has sufficient popular support to make Russian rule stick. That equation reverses if he tries to hold Ukraine.

But as you say, we'll see, and I said above, if the situation on the ground changes, I'll change with it. I'm not a Putin worshiper. He's a sociopath as are they all. But the Donbass region is in fact logically more Russian than Ukranian. As such, I'm hardly surprised to see that Russia has acted to annex it. Please note also that this act is very popular within Russia. This is not just Putin. Russians see the Donbass, and they see brethren. Any leader who ignored that would be unacceptable to most Russians.

[–]magnora7[S] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (8 children)

But the Donbass region is in fact logically more Russian than Ukranian.

Yes I don't disagree. In the easternmost areas the support to become Russian is over 50% with some of the public so it seems fair if they want to change over. And Russia recognized the independence of those two regions in Donbass just on Monday. All this seems fine.

What's not fine is the moves on Kiev, which we are seeing more of literally by the hour...

If I were the leader of Ukraine I would take those far easternmost regions that are over 50% polling to want to go to Russia, give those regions to Russia, and then make a public international cry that the invasions stop. And then if they don't, the whole world would turn on Putin because his reason would be removed. But it would require giving up about 10% of the country. But it could be a route to peace.

However, if the Ukrainian government is trying to fight a war to "preserve the union of Ukraine" so to speak, and never let those easternmost regions go, then it's not going to work. However Russia appears to be doing the military attacks, not Ukraine. If they are attacking Kiev, they are basically forcing all of Ukraine to fight a defensive war. This is very different from just taking Donbass. If they take Kiev, they're trying to conquer a country that mostly doesn't want them.

[–]StillLessons 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (7 children)

Russia will be stupid if they try to occupy western Ukraine. People are stupid, so it's possible this is what they will do, but their actions thus far are still consistent to me with their stated goal of expelling Ukraine from the Donbass. It'll take a few days to see which of these two pictures is the accurate one.

[–]magnora7[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (6 children)

To me it looks like maybe 80% likely they're going to try and take land outside the Donbas region. But we will see.

Putin has also said explicitly in his speech about the attacks, that his goal in this attack is to "Demilitarize Ukraine" which seems consistent with wanting to disarm (and thus weaken) the Ukrainian government as a whole, and is consistent with a desire to capture Kiev and Ukraine as a whole. The Donbass is the foot in the door to a larger landgrab, just like the German regions of Czechoslovakia was Hitler's foot in the door to begin grabbing lots of land.

And since Ukraine is not in NATO, what's going to stop Russia? Can the Ukrainian Army defeat the Russian Army? Seems unlikely tbh. What military alliances does Ukraine have? Is the approach of every other nation simply going to be economic sanctions?

[–]StillLessons 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (5 children)

since Ukraine is not in NATO, what's going to stop Russia?

Just finished listening to Kim Iversen's take on this, and I see a lot of sense in her analysis. She points out that this is fundamentally about Nordstream 2. Russia acts out of self-interest, as everyone does, either personally or as a country. Russia was holding pat as long as there was the advantage to them of western European money coming it to pay for their natural gas. To convince Russia not to act militarily, they must be able to achieve their goals (development, as any country or government desires) through some other means. The US has given Russia absolutely nothing to work with in diplomacy. No matter what the Russians do, the US respond with threats of military force on Russian borders. If we want to "stop Russia", we need to try to understand what they want. If what they want is a secure western border and the US refuses even to consider the peaceful withdrawal of force to enact that, the Russians will continue to act to secure their border. From the Russian side, remember this is what they are doing. They don't have the power to do more, but they do have the power to prevent Ukraine from posing a direct threat on Russia's border.

[–]BravoVictor 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

I think you've got it backwards. Hitler's campaign started with him exterminating ethnic minorities in Germany, which is what Kiev's been doing in Donbas for years. The Ukrainian Asov battalion is literally composed of Neo-Nazis.

That said, you might be right. It's hard to know the facts on the ground, since reporting is so spotty.

[–]On-Point 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

The Russian cocksuckers should move to Russia.

[–]BravoVictor 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

In Donbas. That's not Ukraine. That's the part of former Ukraine where Kiev's been murdering people since 2015. 80% of the people who have been killed there were ethnic Russian Ukrainians, murdered by their alleged government.

[–]On-Point 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

You have that backwards. Ethnically Russian terrorists shelled civilians.