all 7 comments

[–]StillLessons[S] 4 insightful - 1 fun4 insightful - 0 fun5 insightful - 1 fun -  (5 children)

Basically, this official accepts as fact that FL (low regulation re: Covid masking and social distancing) and CA (high regulation re: Covid masking and social distancing) have similar Covid numbers.

He then proceeds to say "What we do know is that the more careful people are, the more they mask and social distance and the quicker we vaccinate, the quicker it goes away and the less it spreads."

These two statements are logically not compatible. I have friends who live and have traveled in both California and in Florida. It's not just the regulation. People are behaving accordingly. My friends who visited Florida said notably fewer people were wearing masks. My friends in California tell me people are almost universally masked. So beyond just regulation (what people should do), there is a real-world behavioral experiment in place (what people are doing). The numbers suggest no difference is being made by the masking/social distancing efforts California has put in place and enforced strictly. This official accepts this as fact.

That cannot be squared with his above quote.

These are also a good pair of states to compare because the societal/population/wealth/cultural(outside politics) parameters are not overly dissimilar. This seems like a pretty good "real world" laboratory to me, as close to "apples to apples" as we are likely to get in the real world.

As such, this is a precise data point for the problem with Covid policy around the world: the refusal to accept the null hypothesis (i.e. when your hypothesis - masks and social distancing make a difference - is not supported by the data).

[–]VirgilGriff 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (4 children)

It's possible that in FL the knowledge that "few people wear masks" makes people more cautious, and in CA the knowledge that "almost everyone wears masks" makes people do more COVID-risky behaviors. Also the CA smugness effect of "we're so great and enlightened" might make them more prone to thinking they can do no wrong, and thus make more mistakes.

[–]Bridgeheadprod 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

Or masks don’t make a difference.

[–]VirgilGriff 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

Clearly the thing that surgeons wear on their faces all day being useless is far more likely than all those other things combined. Because if I've learned anything by being alive in the real world, things are black and white.

[–]Bridgeheadprod 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

It’s so they don’t spit a chunk of something into the oriface they’re operating in. And they don’t wear the same one all day, into a store, put to their car, at lunch, etc. In fact, if they did it would be considered a good way to spread disease.

[–]VirgilGriff 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

And they don’t wear the same one all day, into a store, put to their car, at lunch, etc. In fact, if they did it would be considered a good way to spread disease.

Nor should laypeople when attempting to prevent spreading respiratory droplets

[–]Bridgeheadprod 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

That was the most bullshit nonsensical answer