14,500 registered voters from detroit, all over the age of 100

submitted by banned4rmblind from self.politics

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[–]slushpilot 10 insightful - 2 fun10 insightful - 1 fun11 insightful - 2 fun -  (5 children)

Unlikely?

There are 324 million people in the USA (source: US census bureau, 2019)

There are 72 thousand centenarians in the USA (source: CDC, 2014)

Because that data from 2014 isn't current, let's be generous and double it for extra margin of error. Call it 140 thousand.

That gives us a national ratio of 0.04% — that's how many people out of the general population might live to 100 in the USA.

Now we can calculate that for the state of Michigan: population 9,986,857 (source: US census, 2019)

Result: 4,315 centenarians. And that's being quite generous with doubling the national average!

[–]slushpilot 4 insightful - 1 fun4 insightful - 0 fun5 insightful - 1 fun -  (4 children)

One thing to keep in mind is, if these are just the "registered voters" is there a way to verify how many of these names actually voted? It's possible that some large proportion of these people passed away a few years ago and their names haven't yet been taken off the list here. So if the number is high for that reason then it could be within the margin of error for my estimate here.

A random sampling of how many did vs. didn't vote could give a useful ratio to show whether this was abused. I'd say if fewer than 15% of these names have a vote attached then it's less likely to be fraud.

(Based on 4300 estimated alive out of 14500 registered = 30%, then subtract some percentage for turnout: I can't estimate what proportion of centenarians are likely to vote, but it's likely to be less than the general population.)

[–]slushpilot 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

Also, the spread is currently 147 thousand in favor of Biden. So either way these 14,500 wouldn't make up for that anyway.

[–]jet199 4 insightful - 3 fun4 insightful - 2 fun5 insightful - 3 fun -  (0 children)

They'll likely be voting on more than one thing though. This might not be about the presidential election.

[–]redditbegay 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

iTs OnLy 10%!!!!!

[–]slushpilot 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Hey, don't let me stop you from finding more.