all 34 comments

[–]slushpilot 10 insightful - 2 fun10 insightful - 1 fun11 insightful - 2 fun -  (19 children)

Unlikely?

There are 324 million people in the USA (source: US census bureau, 2019)

There are 72 thousand centenarians in the USA (source: CDC, 2014)

Because that data from 2014 isn't current, let's be generous and double it for extra margin of error. Call it 140 thousand.

That gives us a national ratio of 0.04% — that's how many people out of the general population might live to 100 in the USA.

Now we can calculate that for the state of Michigan: population 9,986,857 (source: US census, 2019)

Result: 4,315 centenarians. And that's being quite generous with doubling the national average!

[–][deleted]  (11 children)

[removed]

    [–]bobbobbybob 10 insightful - 3 fun10 insightful - 2 fun11 insightful - 3 fun -  (1 child)

    they are not suggesting it is legit. Puts upper bound at 4k, far less than actual.

    [–]slushpilot 4 insightful - 1 fun4 insightful - 0 fun5 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

    Exactly. Thank you.

    [–][deleted]  (1 child)

    [deleted]

      [–]redditbegay 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

      WARNING:

      Reddit is a shithole.

      [–]magnora7 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (5 children)

      Please don't advocate violence, last warning.

      [–]hennaojichan 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

      I'm not advocating violence but the maximum punishment for treason is death. All the traitors get a fair trial before they hang. No vigilante justice.

      [–]filbs111 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

      Often there are rules against incitement to violence, and this seems quite reasonable, the idea being a third party might be motivated by the first party to commit an act of violence against the second, against the second party's consent.

      However, inviting someone to kill themselves doesn't have the same problem. If someone kills themselves, it is done with their own consent.

      [–]magnora7 1 insightful - 2 fun1 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 2 fun -  (2 children)

      It's not about consent, it's about advocating violence

      noun: violence - behavior involving physical force intended to hurt, damage, or kill someone or something.

      [–]filbs111 1 insightful - 2 fun1 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 2 fun -  (1 child)

      using that definition, it's not permitted to suggest that hitting a pinata is fun.

      [–]magnora7 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

      I only really apply in the most strict sense: advocating death of a human

      [–][deleted] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

      You had me in the first part.

      [–]slushpilot 4 insightful - 1 fun4 insightful - 0 fun5 insightful - 1 fun -  (4 children)

      One thing to keep in mind is, if these are just the "registered voters" is there a way to verify how many of these names actually voted? It's possible that some large proportion of these people passed away a few years ago and their names haven't yet been taken off the list here. So if the number is high for that reason then it could be within the margin of error for my estimate here.

      A random sampling of how many did vs. didn't vote could give a useful ratio to show whether this was abused. I'd say if fewer than 15% of these names have a vote attached then it's less likely to be fraud.

      (Based on 4300 estimated alive out of 14500 registered = 30%, then subtract some percentage for turnout: I can't estimate what proportion of centenarians are likely to vote, but it's likely to be less than the general population.)

      [–]slushpilot 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

      Also, the spread is currently 147 thousand in favor of Biden. So either way these 14,500 wouldn't make up for that anyway.

      [–]jet199 4 insightful - 3 fun4 insightful - 2 fun5 insightful - 3 fun -  (0 children)

      They'll likely be voting on more than one thing though. This might not be about the presidential election.

      [–]redditbegay 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

      iTs OnLy 10%!!!!!

      [–]slushpilot 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

      Hey, don't let me stop you from finding more.

      [–][deleted] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

      Because that data from 2014 isn't current, let's be generous and double it for extra margin of error. Call it 140 thousand.

      I'm not sure it's prudent to do that. Regardless, the numbers are significantly off if the 14,500 figure is accurate. Although it does matter how many of them voted. Voter registry errors are one thing, exploiting them is another.

      [–]filbs111 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

      It's plausible that the population of Michigan is older than average, if younger people migrate to other states etc.

      [–]jet199 7 insightful - 6 fun7 insightful - 5 fun8 insightful - 6 fun -  (4 children)

      Amazing the longevity Americans have.

      It must be their wonderful diet and lifestyle.

      [–][deleted]  (3 children)

      [removed]

        [–]jet199 4 insightful - 2 fun4 insightful - 1 fun5 insightful - 2 fun -  (2 children)

        A bigot is someone intolerant of people with different opinions, not someone who makes jokes about different nationalities.

        It's a word almost only ever used by people who are themselves intolerant of different POVs nowadays.

        [–][deleted] 3 insightful - 3 fun3 insightful - 2 fun4 insightful - 3 fun -  (0 children)

        On the left the word "bigot" is a generic insult for anyone who says anything they consider to any extent offensive. Perhaps the comment was a joke about that, since leftists get offended when you tell them they can't eat ten Big Macs a day.

        [–]zyxzevn 4 insightful - 1 fun4 insightful - 0 fun5 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

        Note: Docs.google will sometimes remove content. Dont forget to copy it to your own computer in a usable format.

        [–]hennaojichan 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

        No, don't use google. Use Gigablast.

        [–]Airbus320 2 insightful - 3 fun2 insightful - 2 fun3 insightful - 3 fun -  (0 children)

        👌

        [–]VirgilGriff 3 insightful - 2 fun3 insightful - 1 fun4 insightful - 2 fun -  (1 child)

        When someone dies are they automatically unregistered to vote? I don't think they are

        [–]chadwickofwv 3 insightful - 3 fun3 insightful - 2 fun4 insightful - 3 fun -  (0 children)

        In dem controlled areas they remain registered and vote for several decades after death.

        [–]HarlanRogers 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

        And I'm sure Russia hacked the 2016 election too.

        Admit it, you're mired in the same copium Hillary supporters were in 2016. Get over it, Trump is not as popular as he once was. If you sincerely think the Democrats are the only party participating in foul play, and the GOP are saints, you might just be deluded by your own bias.

        [–]jet199 8 insightful - 6 fun8 insightful - 5 fun9 insightful - 6 fun -  (0 children)

        To be fair Trump was never that popular to start with. He's just been up against 2 lame horses. If anything he's had more people come out for him now, especially among minorities. Where his popularity has fallen its been among white men, and we all know they are evil so I'm not sure what that means.

        [–]EthnocratIndependent 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

        Trump is not as popular as he once was.

        False.

        [–]asterias 2 insightful - 2 fun2 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 2 fun -  (0 children)

        It's obviously a medical miracle. The city of Detroit is known worldwide for its healthy climate that favors health and longevity. Also those who vote for Biden (blm, antifas, gay pride marchers) are known for their healthy lifestyle.

        [–][deleted] 1 insightful - 2 fun1 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 2 fun -  (0 children)

        fake news

        [–]hennaojichan 1 insightful - 2 fun1 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 2 fun -  (0 children)

        Lots of the time when people on welfare die, it is not reported so the family can continue to receive a check every month.