you are viewing a single comment's thread.

view the rest of the comments →

[–][deleted] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (10 children)

why weren't there a supply of people that can afford houses. no good jobs.

[–]wecandobetter 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (5 children)

Not true. No supply of 'affordable' houses because there was plenty of market for higher priced houses. If you buy a piece of land to develop, you want to command as much sale price for it as you can. So you, the developer, will not choose to build a 150k 2b 1 bath starter home if you know you can build a 350k 4b 2b home and it will definitely sell. You will not choose to build a $700/month 2bd 1b slum-partment complex if you know you can build a $1500/month 2bd 1b complex, and it will fill.

Overall, the middle class split after 2008 - many moved up the income bracket. There are more affluent families now than ever, supplying the demand for higher priced point housing. Those who tread water or slid down in income have less buying power and insufficient numbers to cause the market to cater to them. We're going to see this change in the next few years. 400k and up housing is sitting on the market for months now. All the demand is in the 180-300k arena. There's pressure now to build cheaper, and in a recession, that pressure will increase.

[–][deleted] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (4 children)

you're talking about supply and demand and capitalism but forgot about bailouts, which the banks knew they would get if and when people defaulted on homes, due to no good jobs. Jobs sent to china. Since 2008 is another story but we're talking about what caused the 2008 crash. Now we have a crash and will see defaults on homes but we know why, due to pandemic destroying the economy.

[–]wecandobetter 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

Ahh ok we're going way back to before 2008. Then yes. The banks were incentivized by govt pressure and promise of handouts to write loans to people who had no business taking out those loans. The process has been more or less repeating itself albeit more slowly this time. Programs to let first time buyers buy without down payments, etc etc. The burbs are fulllll of house poor people even today. This time the recession wasn't caused by collapse of liquidity though. So it'll be interesting to see how the housing market responds. My bet is lower prices, more stock in the small starter home category.

[–][deleted] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

yeah lower prices, but even there you have to ask how low, will it be like 5% less than the already overpriced homes we had before, which is still overpriced, or will they go down by a lot. I have been paying attention to home prices and they still haven't gone down with this pandemic. I know economy was good before but now it seems like there'd be less people with good jobs that could get a house so you expect to see prices go down. Not yet tho we know home prices are a lagging indicator.

[–]wecandobetter 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Lagging is the key word. People who had money saved for a house went ahead and bought one. The rippling effect of the restaurant/entertainment sector collapse haven't been fully felt in other industries yet, but they will. It won't be the dramatic bubble collapse of '08, but a slow sinking of conditions.

[–][deleted] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

it all depends, will this lockdown end soon after the election, if biden wins, many think it is done just to hurt the economy, because when it was booming Trump was going to get an easy win. The recovery will be quick soon as the lockdown ends because it is an artificial dampening of what was a good economy. There were people with good jobs. Will they get hired back quick, why not. The economy of 2008's crash never really recovered, I mean those good jobs never came back but the ecomoy did change and there were people with good jobs buying houses for sure up till around march 2020. I think this is one reason housing prices haven't gone down, the bankers and those in the know realize this is a temporary thing and there will be a boom soon where people buy those high priced houses so why lower the price now, just for a quick sell, why not wait. Restaurants, entertainment sector, musicians, bars etc, those have been hit bad. But they all mostly made low wages, besides the owners of those businesses. But the majority were min wage workers, and musicians never made a lot of money besides the top 1% that hit it big. Real good paying middle class jobs like docotrs, lawyers, nurses, engineers, construction workers, those have been still doing ok. And they are in for business to pick up soon I think. Now maybe I am wrong and this pandemic never ends and this is the new normal and the economy just keeps declining and we have a depression and never get out, I doubt it though. I have seen many booms and busts in my time altho none caused by a pandemic. What I don't like recently is Trump saying to Woodward, on tape, how the conornavirus is real and a big deal and hurts young people and he played it down despite being real. That has me worried but I know Trump is actually in on this with the elites and just plays the 2 minute hate role.

[–]sproketboy 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

Because of the nimby problem where some local jurisdictions don't want to build housing. It's worse now.

So The left (as usual) come up with a top down scheme for a local problem which could have been solved by building more houses which eventually tanks the world economy. Oh and that Democrat deregulated the banks prior to this mess.

This is why we can't have nice things.

[–][deleted] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

millions of houses sit empty. banks feel no need to sell them at lower prices. If they lose money just get a bailout.

[–]sproketboy 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Part of the same problem.

[–][deleted] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

yeah if we had real capitalism and real competition it wouldn't happen. Meaning if they would never get bailouts they would want to lower home prices because getting a little bit of money is better than getting no money.