AI predicts coronavirus 53 million dead, some doctors disagree

submitted by jamesK_3rd from (forbes.com)

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[–]magnora7 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Just remember that a huge chunk of the people who died from the Spanish flu (which killed 50 million people) died because they were over-prescribed aspirin, which had recently been invented. Millions of people were taking like 20 aspirin a day, and it causes liver or kidney failure, which accounted for a large number of deaths.

So maybe if you get infected, don't go for the "hot new treatment" and just stick with the known basics for overcoming illness. I think that's one big takeaway lesson from the spanish flu pandemic.

[–]jamesK_3rd[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

I think that's a good point. Many times the cure can be as problematic are the disease.

In this case, i don't think we really have a good handle on exactly what's going on with the disease. I don't think it's the doomsday scenario as being predicted, but it's hard to know for sure because the China is still quite silent about much of it in typical fashion.

But i do think this really highlights just how interdependent we are on each other globally, and also highlights that if we were to face a rapidly spreading disease, i think it would lay waste to our cities. I went to the west coast over the weekend, the airports were just cess pools lol.

[–]SuperConductiveRabbi 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

"I started with day over day growth,” he told me, using publicly available data released by China. “[I then] took that data and dumped it into an AI neural net using a RNN [recurrent neural network] model and ran the simulation ten million times. That output dictated the forecast for the following day. Once the following day’s output was published, I grabbed that data, added it to the training data, and re-ran ten million times.”

This idiot just trained an RNN to very, very inefficiently determine the coefficients in the polynomial function the Chinese government is using to produce the reported numbers. A Twitter user discovered the model weeks ago, and his predictions conform to within 0.1%, with his model having an R2 of 0.9999, proving beyond a shadow of a doubt that the published numbers are an estimate at best, intentionally fake at worst. https://twitter.com/evdefender/status/1225450497827647488

[–]jamesK_3rd[S] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

The real problem is that who knows if the data given by the Chinese is even remotely ban park correct, they aren't exactly beacons of transparency.

I think this will likely mimic most of the other doomsday modeling out there which is generally incorrect, typically in the "climate science" realm.

[–]Nemacolin 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Wanna bet?

[–]AbeFroman 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.

Current corona virus death toll in China:636.

Why are we freaking out about this?