China's 12 Point Plan for a political settlement to the Russo-Ukrainian War by Nightjar in geopolitics_neutral

[–]Nightjar[S] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

They pretty much don't come down hard on anything, and make a bunch of statements that I think pretty much everyone agrees on, e.g. a negotiated settlement should be obtained, global supply chains shouldn't be disrupted, nuclear weapons shouldn't be used and nuclear plants should be kept safe, civilian casualties should be avoided, etc.

Interestingly, they do say Ukraine's territorial integrity should be upheld, but they don't define how they interpret this, e.g. 2014 vs. 2022 pre-referendum vs. 2022 post-referendum borders.

Analysis of how many artillery shells Russia has left. by Nightjar in geopolitics_neutral

[–]Nightjar[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Yea. Apparently an artillery gun can shoot 2,500 rounds before it needs a new barrel. Claims for artillery shots per day range from 10,000 - 50,000. So Russia is effectively going through 4-20 guns per day. Pretty crazy.

Analysis of how many artillery shells Russia has left. by Nightjar in geopolitics_neutral

[–]Zapped 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Many of the comments below the video say that barrel wear is going to be a bigger problem than ammunition. Also, all of the ammunition they have in stock may not be what they need.

Analysis of how many artillery shells Russia has left. by Nightjar in geopolitics_neutral

[–]Nightjar[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

This video makes the argument Russia has between 5-15 million rounds of artillery in storage. Author also makes the claim Russia is likely shooting ~10,000 rounds per day. Russia can also make approximately 2,500 rounds per day. At this rate, Russia would have enough rounds to keep this rate of firing for ~2-6 years.

This isn't to say Russia can supply this many rounds to the front, given logistical challenges, as explained in the video.

Essay by the Prime Minister of Poland - The Future of the West Is in Question Without more forceful intervention in Ukraine's war, the consequences for the U.S. and Europe could be devastating. by Nightjar in geopolitics_neutral

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Warmongering propaganda posing as neutral geopolitics

Russia is weaponizing its energy exports and decreasing gas exports to Europe as their heads of state visit Ukraine. by Nightjar in geopolitics_neutral

[–]Nightjar[S] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Russia decreased the amount of natural gas to Germany via the Nord Stream pipeline by 40%. In addition, Russia also decreased the amount of natural gas to Italy by 15%.

None of this is technical, as the gas compressors Russian is referencing have been being repaired in Canada for quite some time. Thus it is political and Russia is weaponizing its natural gas exports.

These decreases come at the same time that Italian and German heads of state are in Kyiv.

The response has been a sudden 63% increase in natural gas prices in Europe, which are now about 1,200% higher than they were over the past decade.

https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/TG*1

This clearly seems to represent a threat to Europe "Do not help Ukraine further or we will cut of your gas supplies entirely and no amount of money will keep your lights on or your homes heated." This could potentially explain the sluggishness with which Germany is moving with regard to supplies arms to Ukraine.

An interview with the Ukrainian commander whose surrender might have had the single largest contribution to Russian forces occupying the southeast of Ukraine. He is now defecting to Russia. by Nightjar in geopolitics_neutral

[–]Nightjar[S] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

This man is Kuzmenko Dmitry Victorovich, who as I understand was the commander of the 194th Territorial Defense Battalion in the Kherson region, which again to my understanding was the force tasked with defending Ukraine from Russia incursion via Crimea.

An interesting thing he mentions is that he surrendered his forces and didn't fight back, as opposed to in Kiev, Kharkiv, etc. I wonder what the reasoning was.

One possibility is simply that he was pro-Russian this entire time and wanted to see Ukraine reabsorbed into the Russian Federation. Another possibility is that he simply didn't think Ukraine would be able to hold their own against Russia and as such there was no point, in which case he is probably surprised that Kiev, Kharkiv, etc. were able to defend their territories.

Regardless, his surrender of these Kherson region defense forces without a doubt explains why Russia was so easily able to take the Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts so quickly. For the Kherson oblast, this is self explanatory. And for Zaporizhia oblast, presumably all their forces were prepared to defend against Russian forces coming from Donbass territory to their east, not from Russian forces coming from Crimea to their west, as it was the job of Kherson defense forces to defend that axis.

What's also strange is he looks morally totally defeated, not enthusiastic at all. I wonder what is going on through his mind. Perhaps he really thought all of Ukraine would fall quickly and regrets not defending Ukraine as was done elsewhere and feels guilty for not fighting back and instead being responsible for Ukraine losing 2 oblasts, when retrospectively they probably could have held the Russians back if they tried as was done elsewhere.

Additionally, he also talks about active partisan elements in Kherson.

And lastly, the Russian flags in the background and portraits of Putin should squash any doubt as to what Putin's intentions are with this territory, he intends to bring it into the Russia Federation, although at this time Russia state media is denying this.

Overall, fascinating interview.