I thought Lula would win by about 51.5% v. 48.5% at the narrowest to 54.5%-45.5% at the broadest. Turns out that even my narrowest prediction wasn't conservative enough.

User 'VacaLeitera' must have been right: Bolsonaro made massive gains in the second round, with most of the PSDB/PMDB as well as, strangely, the PDT (which, ideologically, seems far closer to Lula's PT).

However, Lula has ran in almost every election since 1989. He's also been President for two terms in the past, and his faction governed Brazil for 12 years under the first and second Lula administrations, as well as the Dilma administration. Thus Brazilians already have some idea of how his incoming term will look.

I expect a massive increase in drugs and violent crime, particularly up north, where I imagine that the Cartels will be making big gains, having felt that Bolsonaro was keeping the lid on them. These people—lesser than animals, really—will feel like a pressure has been lifted come inauguration day.

It's worth mentioning that Lula isn't quite the Chavista that Maduro and Ortega are, possibly not even to the same extent as Peru's semi-Chavista Castillo. Instead, he is closer to Chile's Boric, Argentina's Fernandez and other Left-liberal and social democratic types, who have been making a comeback. At the moment, I think the general Latin American 'Right-wing' have only Ecuador (Lasso), Guatemala (Giammattei), Paraguay (Abdo Benitez) and Uruguay (Lacalle Pou), since the Left took (back) Argentina (Fernandez from Macri), Chile (Boric from Pinera), Colombia (Petro from Duque) and Honduras (Xiomara Castro from the sort of military-backed government that kept the lid for a while on semi-Chavista upsurge which is now running the country) and now Brazil.

Serious economic decline is on the table, but not quite to the extent that drug and gang violence and assorted social rot will accelerate under his regime. Expect vigilantism to increase as well—the signs of it are already there with what looks like a growing number of attacks on real and suspected criminals by civilians. Since vigilante groups often degenerate into criminal groups themselves (as is particularly the case in Mexico), expect more of the classic Brazilian gore videos that have long permeated the internet.