Brazil's 2022 Election is a battle between good vs evil.

submitted by radicalcentristNational Centrism from self.debatealtright

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[–]LGBTQIAIDSAnally Injected Death Sentence 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

Lula will narrowly win.

The supporters of Ciro Gomes in the first round (3.04%) are enough to get Lula over 50% alone. In 2018, Gomes did not endorse Haddad (PT) or Bolsonaro, but it can safely be assumed that his voters are aware that they are closer to Lula (PT) than to Bolsonaro.

Even if that wasn't the case, supporters of the PSDB/PMDB (both Centrist to marginally Right-leaning overall) in third place can't all be trusted to vote for Bolsonaro, especially since a sizeable number of their voters are still Left-wing or liberal nutjobs, as well as much of the party hierarchies: Tebet (PMDB) is an overt feminist and supports 50% women quotas in government. Predictably, she endorsed Lula.

Unless a whole bunch of voters who sat out in the first round vote Bolsonaro in the second, Lula will have a narrow victory (possibly as narrow as 51.5% v. 48.5%, but if even half of the first round PSDB/PMDB voters switch to Lula in the run-off, perhaps a final result such as 54.5%-45.5% might be possible). Anything higher than that, I think, is highly unlikely.

[–]radicalcentristNational Centrism[S] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

From what I've read on /Pol/, Bolsonaro has tried reaching out to Women and minorities during his Presidency. Even going as far as to bring fresh drinking water to the poorest regions.

But it might not be enough, because the Northern half of the country only cares about free handouts and Communism.

It's a shame and further shows why democracy in any multicultural society is always a paradox.

There's also claims that if Bolsonaro loses, Brazil would lose territorial claims to the Amazon Forests. Somehow, France really hates his country and has been making threats over it.

[–]VacaLeitera767 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Ciro ran a very anti-Lula campaign. Most of his remaining voters will probably go to Bolsonaro.

Despite Tebet supporting Lula, most of her voters are center-right and will end up voting for Bolso. It will be very close, but Lula is slightly favored.