Italian election thread

submitted by Rakean93Identitarian socialist from self.debatealtright

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[–]LGBTQIAIDSAnally Injected Death Sentence 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

I was hoping you'd make a post on this, since you seem to be the most qualified here on the matter of Italian politics.

What will the government actually look like? FdI coalitions with who exactly? What does the opposition look like, presumably with the PD being at the head of it?

The other big question is how stable this government would be? For example, is there any chance of enough parties quitting government and moving into opposition in order to collapse the government and lead to another election?

Also, that scumbag of a President can't do anything such as annul the results, right?

Glad that PD didn't make as much of a comeback as I expected. It seemed to me that M5S voters were going back to the PD, but I prefer that they remain strong (and outside of the Left coalition) to divide the (normally) PD vote and the wider Left coalition vote.

[–]Rakean93Identitarian socialist[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

What will the government actually look like? FdI coalitions with who exactly?

FDI formed a coalition with FI and league. it's hard to explain because Italy chanrs the electoral laws every few years; this time coalitions had to be formed before the elections because a lot of seats were uninominal - that means that there was a single candidate to be elected. So let's say that you have a coalition which gets 30% of the votes, and two indipendet parties each one with 20% of the votes - the coalition with 30% still gets elected. That's how the right ended up with a supermajority. The left can't even blame because this reform was created by them.

FDI was expected to have less votes than league+FI combined. They instead got barely twice the vote of the "junior members" combined. So we can expect that FDI will express most of the government.

What does the opposition look like, presumably with the PD being at the head of it?

Basically m5s is anti-nato and PD is pro NATO, plus those two combined got less than 150 seats, while the right wing coalition has ~260 seats. They are not really in the position of doing anything

The other big question is how stable this government would be? For example, is there any chance of enough parties quitting government and moving into opposition in order to collapse the government and lead to another election?

Italian governments are unstable by design. I expect this government to last maybe 3 years. But the allies will withdraw their support only if they find out that they will be able to get better results in some early elections.

Also, that scumbag of a President can't do anything such as annul the results, right?

So that's kinda funny. When the monarchy was abolished the president got most of the power of the king. Theoretically he can just form a government with the left. He can even form a government with random people from the streets. But such a government wouldn't be able to pass any law because they need the votes of the two chambers, so sheninegans are highly unlikely. Furthermore FDI was by far the most voted party in the army, so...

[–]LGBTQIAIDSAnally Injected Death Sentence 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Ideally, FDI-FI-Lega is what I want to see, since that eliminates the need for any Left-wing party representation in the government whatsoever. Let the Leftists cry for a few years.

A 'Centre-Right coalition' supermajority is obviously also desirable, since this means that the Left-wing can't even really do anything in the opposition.

No Left-wing parties in government or in (meaningful) opposition makes this vastly better than the first Conte government, in which M5S ruined everything.

Also good to hear that Mattarella can't realistically do anything. I think he was already very bothered by the first Conte-Salvini-Di Maio government (probably mostly because of Salvini), but now he's in a position that he would find even more disagreeable. From his point of view, Meloni-Salvini-Berlusconi are probably a far worse trio.

How is M5S doing with Di Maio having left to form the 'Civic Commitment' party which is now part of the 'Centre-Left coalition'? Is the M5S voter base staying with their party under Conte outside of that coalition, or is there a big transfer of them to Di Maio's party?

I like how M5S is in an alliance of sorts with the Gay Party. Says it all, really.

[–]Rakean93Identitarian socialist[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Di Maio is over, maybe he will join PD. He wasn't able to get past 1-2%. The majority of the m5s voters just went along with the main party.