Russian war effort collapsing?

submitted by JuliusCaesar225Nationalist + Socialist from self.debatealtright

Thought the current developments in the war deserve a post. Most information coming out is showing Ukraine making huge gains.

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[–]casparvoneverecBig tiddy respecter 5 insightful - 1 fun5 insightful - 0 fun6 insightful - 1 fun -  (7 children)

Criminal negligence and lack of seriousness from Putlet.

An entire oblast defended by a single battalion. Ukrainians assembled 7 brigades against it.

No mobilization done. Russian and allied contingent in Ukraine total a mere 160,000 whereas Ukraine despite the losses due to total mobilization has over 400,000 men.

Russians simply have too few troops to man the enormous frontlines.

Putlet meanwhile is watching the Vostock exercises where 50,000 Russian troops participated. These 50,000 troops could've been a god send in the real war instead of this play war.

Either Putlet is a senile boomer who's divorced from reality or there's some 4D chess. I lean towards the former.

These Sovietasaurus boomers stifle all light.

[–]NeoRail 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

Didn't you say that the Russian government has been training and mobilising reserves for months now, preparing them for a future escalation? What happened to that?

I don't think Putin is stupid, but it definitely appears that he and the Russian ruling class are being very cautious, to the point where it may be counter-productive. If Russia had gone full force from the start, it is possible that the conflict may have already been over by now, before military aid, sanctions and Ukrainian recruitment could make much of a difference. Instead, it seems that even now they are waging a limited war and multiplying all of the costs of the conflict not only for themselves, but also for the rest of the world too.

[–]TheJamesRocket 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

If Russia had gone full force from the start, it is possible that the conflict may have already been over by now, before military aid, sanctions and Ukrainian recruitment could make much of a difference.

It does look like Russia tried to wage a blitzkrieg against the Ukraine from the get go, despite them labeling it a 'special military operation.' They simply underestimated the Ukrainian will to resist, which was an obvious mistake in hindsight. The Ukrainians are fiercely Russophobic, and more to the point, they have been radicalised by 8 years of propaganda.

The Russians came close to capturing Kiev in the first month of fighting, but they simply didn't have enough troops to pull it off. They had more troops in south Ukraine than the north. If they had taken the capital, it would have been a major victory, and Zelensky would have been captured or forced to flee. Instead, the Russians were forced to withdraw from Kiev and abandon that part of the front.

[–]NeoRail 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

That's how it looks to me as well. It seems that they assumed the Ukrainian military-political apparatus would collapse quickly without much resistance, so they approached the conflict with the idea of using limited force and causing limited damage in order to make the post-war situation more stable and more profitable for themselves. Obviously, that wasn't a very good idea - state collapse is not something that just happens. If they wanted to win quickly, they should have used the maximum amount of force possible. Now they are probably in for another year or two of warfare - maybe longer, if they continue to not take things seriously, and even then, I don't think that Russia will necessarily win. As the war drags on, the Ukrainians will not only get more desperate, but also more competent, and then there are also the Western subsidies too. Frankly, at this point the weak link might actually be the West, rather than Ukraine itself - if the energy crisis can bring an end to Western support, Russia will probably win even without mobilising. That does not seem very likely, though.

[–]Rakean93Identitarian socialist 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Russia is factually more similar to an elective monarchy than a parliamentary Republic. With that in mind you should note that a war event is incredibly risky for such type of a government, which is probably the most unstable. I am not sure that Putin could afford a full blown war.

[–]EthnocratArcheofuturist 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Wait, for months you've been saying Russia is winning and now that's not the case?

[–]TheJamesRocket 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Putlet meanwhile is watching the Vostock exercises where 50,000 Russian troops participated. These 50,000 troops could've been a god send in the real war instead of this play war.

That was especially baffling. What the hell was Putin thinking? Even though not all of the troops involved in those exercises were Russian (there were personnel from several different nations involved), they could have had a significant impact if they had been deployed to the Ukraine. At the very least, the Russians could have squeezed the Ukrainians out of the few remaining contested areas.

But that brings us back to the larger question of what Putin has in mind for the endgame of this war? How does he plan to bring the war to an end without occupying the Ukraine and/or destroying its ZOG regime? This is a classic episode of a proxy war waged on Americas behalf; the Deep State isn't going to let the fighting stop. They are going to keep raising the stakes and escalating until Russia breaks, or they do.

[–]casparvoneverecBig tiddy respecter 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/09/the-izium-withdrawal-a-catalyst-for-starting-in-earnest.html

This has some good explanations.

[–]oligarchracy 4 insightful - 2 fun4 insightful - 1 fun5 insightful - 2 fun -  (0 children)

I doubt it it. It’s hard to see the Russians losing this militarily. It might be a setback for them, but it could also have the effect of further wearing down the Ukrainian army for meager temporary gains. I’m curious how much of the Ukrainian army are now mercenaries.

You have to be wary of what you see in the western media, which is basically now just a neocon propaganda arm. If I remember you fell for a lot of the disinformation early on that proved to be total BS. It’s hard to get accurate information on whats going on since bad news for the Zelensky regime is censored.

[–]NeoRail 4 insightful - 2 fun4 insightful - 1 fun5 insightful - 2 fun -  (2 children)

I don't think that the Russian war effort is collapsing at all, but it does appear that there have been major setbacks in the area of Izyum. The Russian military have retreated a good distance now, and there is speculation that they will need to retreat even more. I am not sure what is going on, but if Caspar is right about the difference in numbers, it would certainly explain the problem - especially on such a wide front, being massively outnumbered is not a good idea. It is strange to think that currently Russia seems to be handling the economic side of the conflict much better than the military side.

[–]oligarchracy 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Yeah the Russians having to retreat doesnt seem like that big a deal to me. If they had been encircled and large numbers of troops surrendered that would be different. It could have a psychological effect, but Russians aren't exactly snowflakes. If anything it might help ukrainian morale so long as they dont start suffering heavy losses.

On the other hand the western media is getting all excited over this and raising expectations, so if the Russians regroup and eventually start making gains again or the Ukrainians suffer heavy losses it could effect western opinion. I’ve already seen normies increasingly express impatience and skepticism about the Ukraine moneypit.

Its obvious to me this is now just a proxy war between the US and Russia, using Ukrainian lives and territory. The neocons dont seem concerned at all about escalation. They're basically the modern day jewish equivalent of general ripper from dr strangelove. They dont seem concerned at all about a nuclear war and some of them might even welcome it.

[–]NeoRail 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

The main issue is that if the Russians are forced to abandon all of their gains on the Izyum front, they will in all likelihood need to mobilise in order to retake them. They have been waging a slow, methodical campaign, relying on a small, professional force - it looks very unlikely that they will be able to regain everything with their numerically inferior force in any good time frame, if at all. They will need to mobilise, and that seems to be something Putin simply does not want to do.

[–]Richard_Parker 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Who knows what is happening. I dont beievel the official Ukraine propaganda but this seems different. I hope Russia wins for many different reasons but it would not be the first time the bad guys won.

[–]radicalcentristNational Centrism 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Devil's advocate, but according to this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_military_engagements_during_the_2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine#Beginning_March%E2%80%93August_2022

Russia has won 12 victories between March ~ August 2022, whereas Ukraine only won 3 in the same space. However, it's still too early to make any real judgement.

Both Ukraine & Russia are receiving aid and foreign volunteers, so they can damn well kill each other until we run out of humans on this Earth.

The only biased opinion I have is it's weird that Russia has never tried to claim air superiority in the war. That's just begging for unnecessary casualties, especially with Ukraine still hitting targets in the heart of Russia.

[–]asterias 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Another war of attition that will last for years and draw other countries in it.

[–]LGBTQIAIDSAnally Injected Death Sentence 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

It seems that Russia is massively outnumbered on the ground.

For the past week or so I've been wondering why it is that they don't launch a new assault in the far-north, i.e. across the Belarussian border. At the moment, it looks like the Ukraine has moved all of its soldiers eastwards, whereas a new assault in the direction of Kiev would force them to move some of their forces back north.

However, since most of the areas that Russia already controls are majority-Russian demographically, I doubt that there's much support for the Zelensky regime there. Russia will thus be able to build militias similar to those in Novorossiya if given enough time. Since the Ukraine has never taken back Novorossiya, I suspect the same thing will hold true in these other areas once enough men become combat-ready. An insurgency is almost certain to be waged even if the Ukrainians regain military control.

Supposedly, Russia has been buying plenty of weapons from Iran (which exports cheap versions of American drones that have been shot down or crashed in their country) as well as North Korea. If so, they clearly weren't as well prepared as they should have been.