I'm hopefull

submitted by Rakean93Identitarian socialist from (self.debatealtright)

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[–]casparvoneverecBig tiddy respecter 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (4 children)

By Ukraine's own admissions, they're firing 5000-6000 shells a day, and the Russians are firing 50,000-70,000. The Russians in addition have air superiority and long-range fire superiority. Russians have fired as many as 2600 long-range missiles since the start of the war. That's larger than the stockpiles of Britain, France, Italy and Germany combined.

Just yesterday, reports came out that 1000 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in one day from missile strikes alone. 20 missiles at Nikolaev killed 420 Ukrainian soldiers at once.

Anti-Putin figures have compiled a list of Russian dead and it stands at 4000. Russian allies aka LDNR have another 4000 dead. So, in total, 8000 dead.

Ukraine in contrast has suffered 60,000-70,000 dead. They have admitted to 500 deaths per day but this is likely a serious undercount considering that they claimed 100 dead a few weeks before that.

They're down to conscripting men over 50 years of age and young women.

Extrapolating 500 dead over 120 days yields 60,000 dead.

[–]NeoRail 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

If you are confident, then I will trust your figures. I have to wonder how the rest of the war will go if these figures are correct. Would we see a collapse of the Ukrainian army and a Russian drive to Lviv? It's something worth thinking about.

[–]casparvoneverecBig tiddy respecter 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

Ukrainian army won't collapse unless it receives a major blow and Russia lacks the troops to deliver one. My estimation is that Russia needs to mobilize 600,000 men and assemble 20 divisions to decisively rout the Ukrainian army and overrun everything east of the Dnieper.

Reservists take time to train and Russians have started training reservists since January. It's believed that the reservists and the new battalions will be ready by September and in September, Putin will formally declare war.

They've already undergone an industrial mobilization of sorts and are cranking out tanks, artillery, shells, drones, and missiles in rapid order. They're rumored to be building 80 T-90M tanks every month and it's said they've built 48 heavy UCAVs since the start of the war. Kalibr missile production was doubled for the last three years and production never ceased once. There have been major hiring drives in military industries like UEC Saturn which makes engines for missiles and jets.

[–]NeoRail 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Interesting. I wasn't expecting to hear that at all. My impression was that the current style of warfare the Russians are using would be sufficient to take all of eastern Ukraine by December.

[–]casparvoneverecBig tiddy respecter 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

The frontline is too long. It's as long as the distance between Hamburg and Naples. Impossible for 200,000 men to properly man, far less advance against.

Russians weren't pushed out of North Ukraine or Kiev. They left in order to concentrate their forces and shorten the line.