Spot on. I find it interesting watching Ethnocrat's psychology predictably unfolding here. He essentially went through three phases as things went from bad to worse:

First, there was the 'Zemmour positivity' stage, for example:

The polls will shift a lot by the time they arrive.

https://saidit.net/s/debatealtright/comments/8p6y/the_jew_zemmour_splits_the_far_right_vote_between/wabd

The reason for this was in major part because of the effects of the filter bubble, as suggested in this following comment. It is the exact same phenomenon that plays a big part in why Democrats believed that Trump was #NotMyPresident: they simply live in social milieux in which the overwhelming majority of people were indeed anti-Trump, thus giving them the false impression that this was reflective of all of America. It likely also holds true in reverse, with Republicans abjectly failing to understand that the Democrats have won every popular vote since as far back as 1988 (!), and desperately need to defend the electoral college and curtail the immigration that has led the Democrats to constant popular vote winnings, because without the EC they would have already lost every federal election for decades. Over thirty years later, there were countless delusional fools that believe that Trump could somehow even win the popular vote in 2016 or 2020:

The polls really confuse me. All the energy I see online -- and even on the ground via French footage -- is behind Zemmour. He has the biggest rallies by far. I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

https://saidit.net/s/debatealtright/comments/94bp/marine_le_pen_open_to_appointing_leftists_if_she/xjli

This was also accompanied by attitudes that contradicted his second stage, as I will next cover:

NR wasn't close to victory. The regional elections were terrible.

https://saidit.net/s/debatealtright/comments/8gej/is_zemmour_being_promoted_in_france_to_subvert/vdn3

Secondly, as Zemmour neared his spectacular collapse, receiving only 7%, Ethnocrat moved towards rationalized switching to the next best option: believing again in both the desirability and potentiality of a Le Pen victory (essentially reverting to the option we all had before Zemmour became a wedge issue).

Here, we can see him in this stage of doubting. When asked about whether the polls could be wrong, he seems to have given up on the idea that Zemmour could catch-up, but hasn't abandoned the idea that France 2022 would be much like America 2016, with most polls simply being flat-out wrong:

Not entirely. I still think the polls could be wrong.

https://saidit.net/s/debatealtright/comments/93s0/marine_le_pen_is_likely_to_win/xhxv

On the news here they said both Macron and Le Pen have 24%, Mélenchon has 19%, and Zemmour and Pécresse are both at 8%. Look like Macron is underperforming and Le Pen is overperforming. If these numbers are true -- and it looks like they are -- she could definitely win the second round.

https://saidit.net/s/debatealtright/comments/94r5/the_majority_of_french_youth_would_vote_for_le/xkx0

The following seems to me a clear case of reading into Le Pen and RN our desires. RN seems to me generally to have become quite moderate, and not for optical reasons as Ethnocrat has suggested elsewhere. Whether RN is actually cucked or are only 'optics cucks' is really a whole other topic.

Yes, a Le Pen victory will push the Overton Window further right. It will have positive reverberations all over Europe. Her proposed policies on immigration and identity are not that much different from Zemmour's. There's also the new sense of normalization of Le Pen and her party that Zemmour has achieved. Le Pen now looks like a center-right candidate, even though she's not. This is great. It just shows you how much to the right the political spectrum in France has shifted.

https://saidit.net/s/debatealtright/comments/93uo/is_marine_le_pen_worth_getting_excited_over/xhxx

Less than 4 points to get to more than 50%, and she was at 42% a few weeks ago. She definitely has a much better shot at winning this time.

https://saidit.net/s/debatealtright/comments/93s0/marine_le_pen_is_likely_to_win/xhmp

Thirdly, as Le Pen's chances also appear ever remote, he then moves to the Macron acceptance stance, one exemplified by Richard Spencer's absurd views which go so far as to be pro-Macron rather than merely ones of begrudging acceptance (for example, that Macron laughably has a 'positive vision' for Europe [whatever that even means] whereas Zemmour 'just whinges'), as well as the military saviourism stance:

I actually think Le Pen losing would be better because she would be a powerless president anyway. The change France -- and the rest of Europe -- needs won't come from some national populist being elected. It will come from a literal insurgency, especially from within the military. The liberal elites in France are actually at risk of being overthrown by a military coup. Nowhere else in the West is the risk of such a coup -- and the support among the population -- as high as in France. The country is a ticking time bomb.

https://saidit.net/s/debatealtright/comments/96bq/so_who_won_the_debate_between_le_pen_and_macron/xpdt

These developments have culminated in the making of this post, in which Macron's victory has been accepted.

By contrast, keeping in mind that the election was 58-42, my estimation (55-45) was far more accurate (indeed, even I underestimated Macron by 3%). I wrote this 21 days ago, before the round one result 15 days ago:

Macron would easily be re-elected, albeit by less of a margin, much closer to 55-45 than the previous 66-33 result.

https://saidit.net/s/debatealtright/comments/93s0/marine_le_pen_is_likely_to_win/xhtm

Lest we forget that Macron is our enemy par excellence, the scumfuck bastard views us and not Antifa or anyone else as his the biggest enemy:

In celebrating victory, Macron acknowledged a debt to voters who helped get him over the line, “not to support the ideas I hold, but to block those of the extreme right.”

Once again, France's extreme-Left bias in which Eurocommunists have a much better relationship with Macron than the 'Far-Right' becomes flagrantly obvious. Indeed, a Communist who, unsurprisingly, is probably also a Jewess, clearly agrees:

“It was the least worst choice,” said Stephanie David, a transport logistics worker who backed a communist candidate in round one.

https://apnews.com/article/2022-french-election-voting-results-f5b549e3b99930ee05bed17a9d3870b6

Two things everyone needs to learn from:

• We need to be far more trusting of polls when they come from nations where they are less unreliable (e.g. France), and only distrusting of polls where they have a history of failure (e.g. America). The blatant failure of polling in America 2016 did not refute all polls.
• We need to be more mindful of reaching conclusions without taking into account certain academic conclusions that have survived the test of time, such as Duverger's Law or the sheer power of the 'fourth branch of government' (mass media), which clearly was able to aid Macron through constant fearmongering of the alternative over the past few weeks. The media played a big part in boosting Macron several points once they ceased attacking Zemmour, which is clearly reflected in the last two weeks of polls. And so somehow Macron, whose popularity once fell to 18%, still managed a victory.

And, of course, I should end this comment with an obligatory "Fuck Macron!". A "Fuck Spencer!" is also in order, since he's the kind of idiot who would have his followers cast votes for Macron and not Le Pen, just as he laughably had them cast votes for Biden in America 2020.

I do agree with Ethnocrat that Le Pen needs to step down as leader (something which in many parties around the world happens after just one loss, but RN hasn't institutionalized well enough to function without the founder's family), and that we need Macron's piece of shit party to lose to absolutely anyone who is opposed to them come June. My presumption is that LREM will indeed lose seats in the National Assembly, will still a retain a majority, albeit one definitely less than the current 60.66% majority.

Also, it looks like Far-Left nutjobs too extreme even to begrudgingly accept Macron are out in full force right now. It all looks reminiscent of Portland in 2020:

https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/france-election-results-protests:c

Lastly, I think that Le Pen will do even worse next election simply because Macron can't run again. Since many voters ascribe the problems to whoever is President, in Macron's absence the LREM will effectively have a clean slate. The same thing can be seen in South Africa, where plenty of voters (including plenty of dumb Whites) did not see the 'Rainbow Nation' or even the ANC as a problem, but only Zuma. They all thought that Mandela was great and that the ANC would also be great if it was rid of Zuma. I imagine those same people have now shifted to blaming Ramaphosa for all that goes wrong, not really understanding that the Presidency is far from the problem.