all 20 comments

[–]Blackbrownfreestuff 5 insightful - 2 fun5 insightful - 1 fun6 insightful - 2 fun -  (3 children)

I'm not sure how we can find out what's really going on in Ukraine. Where do you get updates? Everything I see looks like propaganda.

[–]ifuckredditsnitches_Resident Pajeet 4 insightful - 1 fun4 insightful - 0 fun5 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

Telegram is good I use bellum acta and intel slava. If I knew Russian I'd also use RIA Novosti

[–]casparvoneverecBig tiddy respecter[S] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Intel slava is great too

[–]ifuckredditsnitches_Resident Pajeet 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

I said that lmao but yeah

[–]Edjean50 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (7 children)

War is Hell. What exactly is Russia even going to gain? The Ukrainian people will never accept their occupation. The country is becoming more and more isolated and ostracized. What's it for? To look better on a map?

[–]casparvoneverecBig tiddy respecter[S] 6 insightful - 1 fun6 insightful - 0 fun7 insightful - 1 fun -  (6 children)

To occupy Ukraine. To prevent a brother nation from being used as a golem against them. Taking Ukraine gets them at least 25 million 98 IQ slavs identical to Russians. It also gets them a lot of land. Ukraine is one of the world's richest lands in terms of agriculture, mineral resource and coal. Controlling it gives Russia a huge hand in geopolitics as it would be the number one food exporter. The entire middle east is fed by Russian and Ukrainian wheat.

Having both allows Moscow to squeeze Arab balls.

[–]Edjean50 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (4 children)

Ukraine will never accept Russian occupation, it will be a perpetual resistance and insurgency.

[–]casparvoneverecBig tiddy respecter[S] 5 insightful - 1 fun5 insightful - 0 fun6 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

The lands occupied by Russia hold 3-5 million people. Where is this mass resistance and insurgency?

[–]romanian 5 insightful - 1 fun5 insightful - 0 fun6 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

But isn't the already occupied area the most pro-Russian/ethnically Russian part of the Ukraine? Is it realistic to assume that the other 20 mil (your target of 25 mil - 5 mil already under Russian occupation) won't revolt against Ru administration? The 2 peoples were and remain genetically brothers, but after this war it's hard for me to believe Ukrainians will still look friendly to their Russian Slavic brothers (and this change already started after Donbas 2014 war, no?)

[–]Edjean50 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

There have been protests in the occupied regions, problem is fear as the military is firmly entrenched in their land as well as the general devastation Russia has inflicted on the region.

[–]Richard_Parker 4 insightful - 1 fun4 insightful - 0 fun5 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Partition Ukraine along Dnieper. Majority east of the river are Russian. The northern enclave is majority Ukrainian but not by much

[–]asterias 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

To prevent a brother nation from being used as a golem against them.

Obviously that's a one-sided relationship.

Taking Ukraine gets them at least 25 million 98 IQ slavs identical to Russians.

That would be janissarism. Forcing people to denounce their identity so you can improve your genetic stock (which in the case of Russia is full of turkic scum) is totally barbarian.

[–]ifuckredditsnitches_Resident Pajeet 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

Do you think they'll be able to occupy the whole country in the end or will the western portions split off from Novorossiya?

[–]casparvoneverecBig tiddy respecter[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

I think they can take the whole country. I think they aim to annex Ukraine up to the 1938 borders.

[–]ifuckredditsnitches_Resident Pajeet 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

I think they aim to annex Ukraine up to the 1938 borders.

Well if that's what they end up doing then the remaining portion may well end up being a haven for CIA backed insurgents. Goes back to the legend of the golem

[–]AidsVictim69 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Russia has no chance at occupying the entire country

[–]AidsVictim69 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Russian and allied forces in total seem to have lost 2000 KIA and 6500 WIA. A total of about 8500 casualties. This amounts to about 4% of pre-war strength.

For Ukraine, the losses are far greater. Russian MoD estimates 14,000 dead and 16,000 seriously wounded with as many as 2000 others made POWs. This amounts to about 11% of pre-war strength.

A four times casualty ratio for Ukraine is believable considering that the Russians have air and artillery superiority. They've launched as many as 1200 land-attack missiles since the start of the war.

I wouldn't trust these numbers too much. As you say air superiority has been limited or pushed into a more restricted role and Ukrainian counter artillery has had at least some effect. Between the relatively slow advances against fortified areas and things like the atrophied/abandoned encirclement of Kiev I'm not inclined to think Russia has anything like a 4:1 ratio. Assaults into fortified areas (which is where a lot of the offensives have been stalling) don't produce those kinds of ratios unless you have massive superiority in equipment (doesn't seem so) and overwhelming concentration of forces (Russia had fewer men total and somewhat of an advantage in trained soldiers at the start). The Russians keep putting out bullshit about their progress in fortified/urban areas although it appears Mariupol is indeed close to falling.

There's tons of propaganda in the West about the Russian army "falling apart" which clearly isn't true but I'm not buying Russias MoD numbers either

Azov took extreme casualties in the last two days and now effectively ceases to exist as a single unit.

Azov has more men outside of Mariupol, definitely some elements in Kharkiv and probably Kiev too where they have training and recruitment centers in both cities. They seem to have lost significant forces in Mariupol (along with other elements of the Ukrainian army that formed the bulk of the defenders) but it's not clear exactly what kind of shape they're in.

[–]EthnocratArcheofuturist 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

What about the Russian ship that was taken down?

[–]casparvoneverecBig tiddy respecter[S] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

It wasn't

[–]EthnocratArcheofuturist 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Huh? So it didn't sink?