There isn't going to be a hot war between nuclear powers. There can be proxy wars in Ukraine and Syria but there won't be major battles between NATO, Russia or China. The war is going to end in a passive-aggressive sanctions war in which it becomes a competition of who can last the longest with halted trade between Russia and the west. Russia will get hit hard when they can't import high-tech components, electronics and industrial equipment from the west. The west will be hit hard when the world's second-largest oil exporter stops selling to the west when oil is already at 93 dollars, when Europe's largest nat-gas supplier shuts down deliveries during a supply crunch and when other resources such as metals and timber don't get delivered.

The situation wouldn't have been half as bad for the west if it wasn't for other crises. We have an electricity and natural resource shortage to begin with. Had this happened when we had energy abundance, it wouldn't have anywhere near as bad. Now the global price of coal is at record high levels and Russia is Europe's biggest source of coal. Shortages mean inflation and had this happened when the inflation was zero it wouldn't have hurt so bad, now inflation is at 6% before the war. That is the highest rate in decades. 6-10% inflation wouldn't have been so bad if debt levels weren't so high that raising interest rates became impossible. The cure for inflation is higher interest rates but governments, companies and people have mountains of debt and can't afford normal interest rates.

I am optimistic about the situation, we aren't going to get nuked, millions of people aren't going to die. The fall of Afghanistan and an invasion of Ukraine within months means the liberal world order is being pushed back. A sanctions war is going to put a lot of stress on the economic system that carries the whole globalist system.