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[–]casparvoneverecBig tiddy respecter 4 insightful - 1 fun4 insightful - 0 fun5 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

No civilization or empire lasts forever and all of them collapse sooner or later. However, collapse comes in various shapes and forms and technology has greatly changed the dynamic to some extent. I'm gonna try to present some scenarios.

EFFORT POST INCOMING(You've been warned)

Scenario A: War-related collapse

Historically, war has been the most common mechanism for elite overthrow. Elites mostly perished at the hands of an invading army from abroad. America's geography is such that it's virtually impossible for anyone to invade it or even maintain a toehold on it.

However, nuclear weapons are another issue. There is a non-zero chance of a scuffle between America and China/Russia(China more likely) escalating to a nuclear exchange. In an all-out war, there is little distinction between military and economic targets. Destroying ports cutS US forces abroad from re-supply but also cripples American ability to import or export anything. Destroying oil pipelines, storage and refineries starve US forces of oil in East Asia, but it also starves US agriculture, electric stations, and industry of oil as well.

If the enemy manages to destroy critical infrastructure like ports, oil pipelines, refineries, the electric grid, and the transport hub, the country will collapse. This will be the mad max style collapse people popularly envision. Individual counties will block off refugees from cities and other states and jealously guard food and water. There will be mass starvation and panic in the cities followed by a mass exodus.

Scenario B: Internal revolution

This is the scenario alt-righters of US origin fantasize about. At some point, a sufficient mass of right-wing whites will grow so fed up with the system that they start to openly defy the government. The regime crackdowns and dissidents fight back with armed force. Cops/FBI are killed and the fuse is lit.

Gun grabs and mass arrests are ordered and an insurgency like the Irish independence war breaks out. Police and the military hunt insurgents across the country and insurgents resist with guerilla warfare, sabotage, and assassination. Eventually, state authority degrades in large swathes of the country, and many counties and regions become no-go zones for the military.

Somewhat like Pakistan or Mexico. There are many regions in both those countries that are effectively ruled by warlords or drug lords and the military rarely ventures there.

There is a non-zero but minute chance of this happening in the US. The modern surveillance state, satellite system, and drones make it very easy for totalitarian regimes to crush this type of insurgency. That being said, a determined US insurgency could cause crippling damage to the US economy by sabotaging power grids, oil pipelines, refineries, and the plants and offices of globohomo corporations.

Assassinations of globohomo figures like Larry Fink or Soros would also severely hamper the elite structure and cause them to hunker down in their hovels. It's wholly possible that at some point the elites get tired, the people get sick of it as well and eventually come to a sort of secession/parallel society situation.

The problem is that while white males have the brain and numbers to do something like this, they lack the will or balls. Men of all races in the US have low testosterone and high obesity. They are cowardly and degenerate with low attention spans and addiction to comfort.

An insurgency against a superpower requires extreme strength of will and courage and white males in the US today lack the courage to even shame a coal-burner. Don't get me wrong. There are some white males who are brave and worthy but they are few and far between.

If they could find each other and form bands, then we'd be in business but in modern society, there's no avenue for forming such bands due to feds and atomization. Plus, in order for such insurgency to succeed, a large portion of the white populatioN(not necessarily a majority) would have to be truly devoted to the cause to the extent they'd risk jail and property loss to help the rebels.

White Americans are nowhere near that level of radicalization. Most conservatives still argue that they are the real anti-racists and feminists.

Scenario C: Secession

This overlaps strongly with the above scenario but this assumes that a mass movement would lead to the break up of the US without major wars or violence.

This scenario is not implausible. If tens of millions of people engage in civil disobedience, organize strikes and boycotts and vote for secessionist parties, it could be done. The problem is that there's no mechanism for any of that to happen. Any organization openly working towards that end would be infiltrated by the feds and arrested.

Social media would block efforts at organizing and boycotts. And most of all, there are no parties to that effect. The two-party duopoly makes it difficult for a secessionist or genuine right-wing party to emerge. Regardless of how many gay baths Nick Fuentes goes to for the GOP, entryism isn't going to work. You're never going to infiltrate the GOP because it's run from the top down. It doesn't care about winning elections.

It cares about being fake opposition.

And again it would require significant radicalization and existential dread in the white population writ large. The US is the enforcer of the globalist cabal. They depend on US economic and military might to carry out their agenda. They wouldn't want to let their main golem break apart.

However, if a faction of the elites get disillusioned and support secessionists, the game would be on.

Scenario D: Mexicanization/Catabolic collapse

Nothing grand happens in this scenario. Due to changing demographics and societal breakdown coupled with declining economic and geopolitical fortunes, the US gradually devolves into a dysfunctional Latin American-style country. The dollar stops being the global reserve currency and the US suffers steep economic contraction and living standards sharply contract. The US is forced to cut down the military in favor of the welfare state.

The economy gradually falls apart. The elites hunker down in their gated communities and quarantine themselves from reality. The loss of the dollar as reserve currency and the end of US military supremacy leads to the collapse of the US world order. In a time of contraction, there's bitter infighting and corruption among the elites as they scramble to plunder as much of the country as they can.

The US government becomes incapable of doing anything due to corruption, incompetence, cowardice, and diversity burdens. Same with the military.

In a state of mass corruption and lawlessness, large parts of the country become de facto parallels societies. The Mexican drug cartels de facto become the rulers in large parts of the southwest as they can provide protection and carry out decisive action.

Many inner cities become perennial warzones between black gangs, they are outside of law and state authority. They along with the cartels don't give a shit what the tranny mayor or governor dictates, and the tranny lacks the courage/will/means to force its will on these groups.

In other US cities, new mobs rise up and through a combination of bribes, blackmail, and terror, become de facto rulers of their own city blocks and areas.

The only people the state can truly flex on and oppress are law-abiding citizens. However, even that might end at some as many rural, far-flung communities and counties increasingly start to flout government diktats and walk their own course. The regime lacks the will or attention to tend to them all.

[–]TheJamesRocket[S] 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

You win the prize for the most detailed response, caspar. Hands down.

Its smart of you to give an overview of different scenarios that could all result in a collapse. I myself believe that these other scenarios are a possibility, albeit less likely than the prospect of financial collapse (which I find to be inevitable).

If I had to assign a probability value to each of your scenarios, I would rate them like so.

 

War-related collapse: 10-15%. / War with Russia and China is more likely now than it was 4 years ago, but it probably won't escalate to the point where nuclear weapons are used. If there is any war at all, it will most likely be a conventional war between China and Taiwan. Defeat will result in a loss of prestige for America, but not an actual collapse.

Internal revolution: 5%. / A Far Right insurgency is more likely now than it was 4 years ago, but it still remains a long way off. Things will need to deteriorate alot more before the Far Right hits critical mass. People are still too comfortable, and have too much to lose.

Secession: 25-30%. / The prospect of states seceding from the Union becomes more and more likely with every year that passes, as the partisan divide in the U.S. becomes worse, and Washington blunders from one crisis to another. There are political obstacles to secession, but these may not prove to be insurmountable if the country continues on its reckless path to destruction. Eventually, some states will find it unbearable to remain tied to a decaying country, and the stage will be set for a breakup.

Mexicanization: 45-50%. This is the most likely out of all your scenarios, but it will require several decades before it yields a collapse. A financial crisis is likely to destroy the country before this process is complete.

[–][deleted] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

And his scenarios don't even take into account the possibility for several predicted natural cataclysms (mega-earthquake, yellowstone, asteroid, or even a cluster of hurricanes or tornadoes or relatively less "extreme" severe weather incidents).