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[–]casparvoneverecBig tiddy respecter 1 insightful - 2 fun1 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 2 fun -  (9 children)

Not in this century. In fact, countries like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Russia, Iran, Canada, and Venezuela will only grow in importance as the century goes on. Oil and gas reserves will become more valuable than ever.

Renewable energy has largely been proven to be a wasteful and expensive grift. Only nuclear fusion can be a really affordable renewable and the project has largely gone nowhere. It's not easy to simulate the sun for sustained periods of time.

Thus, oil and gas will continue to be the main energy source for humanity for the foreseeable future. The demand for energy will grow rapidly in the coming decades as China and the third world experience rapid economic growth due to economic liberalization. Soviet-inspired socialism hindered growth in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and most of the third world during the cold war.

There's no reason why China's GDP per capita shouldn't grow from 10k to 25k similar to South Korea. They have the same human capital and much greater resources. That alone would add 20 trillion to global GDP. Then factor in India doubling its GDP as well. Africa will see greater growth as well.

This huge economic expansion will drive up the need for fossil fuels, particularly oil and gas. More consumption means more automobiles, more plastic goods, more electronics meaning more polymers, more food meaning more agriculture which requires more fertilizers(which need gas to make).

Then add in increasing global trade. A single super container consumes as much fuel as 50 million cars. There are thousands of such ships and thousands will be added in the coming decades.

Saudi Arabia isn't going anywhere. The only way it can collapse is if there's a catastrophic war with Iran and the Iranians either invade SA or destroy its critical oil infrastructure with ballistic missile strikes.

[–]EthnocratArcheofuturist[S] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

[–][deleted] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

their only power is fiat money which is really worthless so they're probably mad that oil fields exist which can be guarded and they can't do anything about the value of oil.

[–]Blackbrownfreestuff 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (6 children)

Only nuclear fusion can be a really affordable renewable and the project has largely gone nowhere. It's not easy to simulate the sun for sustained periods of time.

They are currently building a fusion reactor in France that will actually generate energy. It wont be self sustaining like the sun yet, but this is a huge step.

[–]casparvoneverecBig tiddy respecter 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (5 children)

The problem is sustained fusion. It has been so for decades

[–]Blackbrownfreestuff 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (4 children)

They can can still "produce" energy with unsustained hot fusion. The new reactor they are building building is a game changer.

[–]casparvoneverecBig tiddy respecter 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

Links?

They could produce energy before at CERN as well. The issue was sustaining it to make it EROI efficient.

[–]Blackbrownfreestuff 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

ITER is designed to produce a ten times return on invested energy: 500 MW of fusion power from 50 MW of input heating power (Q=10). It will be the first of all fusion experiments in history to produce net energy.

https://www.iter.org/sci/Goals

[–]casparvoneverecBig tiddy respecter 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

It aims to do that. It hasn't done so already. Let's see if it can actually do it. Plus, they say the fusion would take place for a period of 400s to 600s. If that is the case they'd need multiple reactors perhaps dozens depending on the restart time to supply continuous energy.

[–]Blackbrownfreestuff 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

This is a big step in the right direction. We are not all the way there yet, obviously. But there is a realistic plan for a fusion reactor that produces enegry and is under construction. That's huge. My grandkids might get to witness the first sun reactor in their lifetimes.