Some very encouraging demographic data from Anatoly Karlin

submitted by casparvoneverecBig tiddy respecter from self.debatealtright

https://twitter.com/akarlin88/status/1418884707715063810

Why are catholic countries in Europe so poorly performing? Perhaps they were historically high birth rate countries so they didn't select for breeders? Now they are in demographic transition?

It seems countries that started demographic transition earlier are faring slightly better, France and Czechia for example.

Germany had a catastrophic collapse from the 70s onward and the sheer magnitude could've led them to select for more breeders. No, I don't think its migrants. Most of Merkel's guests(90%) were male so its biologically impossible.

Plus, East Germany has a higher birth rate than the west and its more than 90% German. Remove Berlin and East Germany is as white as Poland.

What's incredible is how fast Turkey has declined. It has a TFR of 1.7 now, lower than some white countries. And that too is heavily skewed in favor of Kurds. Kurds in the east have a TFR of 3-4 kids per woman. So ethnic Turks are going to become a minority in Turkey very soon. Erdogan is now smug wojak mask hiding crying wojak.png.

India too is seeing a rapid decline in Birth rates.

https://www.indiatoday.in/diu/story/declining-fertility-rate-may-shrink-india-population-300-million-80-years-1703598-2020-07-23

https://www.news18.com/news/india/birthrate-projected-to-decline-to-1-73-by-2035-says-health-minister-harsh-vardhan-3456974.html

Meanwhile the Sinic civilization languishes at 1-1.2 TFR. South Korea is now at .82

Japan ironically is the fertility superstar of East Asia now with a TFR of 1.4

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[–]radicalcentristNational Centrism 5 insightful - 2 fun5 insightful - 1 fun6 insightful - 2 fun -  (0 children)

South Korea is now at .82

Unironically, North Korea could be the one to absorb South Korea in the future.

They don't even need an army to do it. Just have to wait it out till all their cities are depopulated.

[–]Nombre27 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Couldn't that TFR increase just be from all the migrants that have entered those countries or does it differentiate who is having children?

[–]AidsVictim69 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

At least part of it is. A lot of these countries either don't collect ethnic data or obfuscate it but what can be estimated from indirect data seems to be quite negative. The native fertility rate and ethnic composition of under 20's is what's most important.

[–]TheJamesRocket 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

If you want more data on the fertility rate of different countrys, you can use this link.

This is the fertility rate of India, Russia, and China in 2020:

 

The fertility rate for India was 2.200 births per woman.

The fertility rate for Russia was 1.823 births per woman.

The fertility rate for China was 1.696 births per woman.

[–]thefirststoneThat's my purse! I don't know you! 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Germany had a catastrophic collapse from the 70s onward

I don't know European history well. Isn't that when the EU (ECC) changed shape, advanced somewhat? That's when the UK joined. There were other communist agitations succeeding.

Did these have any effects? Did Germans flee? Wasn't that when Turkish fast food become dominant in Germany and The Netherlands? Which means immigration in general had changed.

Talking about Germany's reproductive rate doesn't mean there are white people. Maybe it was the first massive flash of near-eastern males.

[–]NayenezganiNot alt-right 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

I don't know European history well.

If you're a European nationalist, shouldn't you? My knowledge is much less than what I would like it to be, but I'm not European.

Regarding the 1970s, you might have seen this website: https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/

It's quite a coincidence that I have thought that most pictures made after the 1960s were not worth watching, ages before I came across those statistics.

[–][deleted] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Most of Merkel's guests(90%) were male so its biologically impossible.

You don't have the policy of family reunification? There is EU directive protecting it.

The "refugees" can airlift their families to Germany.

[–][deleted] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Those fertility rates are pathetic.

But I have read on Karlin's "breeder theory":

That gives hope to those countries. Those who reproduce are more likely to reproduce more while the "childfree" die out.

So tfr could rise to replacement levels soon.

[–]NayenezganiNot alt-right 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Plus, East Germany has a higher birth rate than the west and its more than 90% German. Remove Berlin and East Germany is as white as Poland.

"Kevin ist kein Name, sondern eine Diagnose." Overall, East Germany continues to have worse social/economic metrics than West Germany. You can see the same pattern between Czechia and Slovakia, where there was unequal development during the Communist period. But if the entirety of Eastern Europe continues to experience demographic decline, then that's just a good opportunity to buy cheap property in the future and relocate if you want. The most talented people tend to move abroad which means lower economic competition.

India too is seeing a rapid decline in Birth rates.

As we all know, there is a disparity between different demographics and regions. Jain and Parsi birth rates are abysmal, and Muslims are one of the most fertile.