Will the next American war be in Iran?

submitted by casparvoneverecBig tiddy respecter from self.debatealtright

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[–]Wrangel 6 insightful - 1 fun6 insightful - 0 fun7 insightful - 1 fun -  (8 children)

I don't believe we will see another American invasion. Iraq and Afghanistan were complete disasters, they cost trillions, achieved little and dragged on for years. Invading Iran would be a far bigger mess than any of those wars and the US is far more divided, indebted and tired of war than it was in 2003. Another big factor is the rise of China. Having the military capacity to defeat China and prevent China from taking Taiwan requires a lot of military resources. Marines can't both be a force that retakes islands in the pacific and a desert police. The US military budget isn't endless and priorities have to be made, fighting wars in the middle east or bombers on Guam and China is a far bigger threat than what exists in the middle east.

At the same time a war with China is unlikely because it would be disastrous, imagine if all trade with China stopped overnight and the whole world ran out of spare parts and manufactured goods. Ignoring the potentially huge military costs the economic costs of a war with China is enough to deter a war. Expect a lot of hot air and posturing but in the end there will be no war in the south China sea. The elites are more interested in trying to maintain what they have rather than expand their empire.

[–]Lugger 4 insightful - 1 fun4 insightful - 0 fun5 insightful - 1 fun -  (7 children)

Having the military capacity to defeat China and prevent China from taking Taiwan...

Why would the U.S. care about this shitty little island so much, by the way? Can you imagine how much effort the government will have to put to justify the troops fighting and dying to stop those evaaal Chicoms from conquering a tiny piece of land that 99% of the Americans wouldn't be even able to find on a map?

That's nonsense. And the all-out military conflict between the U.S. and China is impossible for yet another reason — both countries possess a very large number of nuclear missiles; if the war broke out, it would be the end of the world as we know it.

[–]TheJamesRocket 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (6 children)

So, the Neocon jingoist returns to gift us with more of his hot takes...

Why would the U.S. care about this shitty little island so much, by the way? Can you imagine how much effort the government will have to put to justify the troops fighting and dying to stop those evaaal Chicoms from conquering a tiny piece of land that 99% of the Americans wouldn't be even able to find on a map?

The U.S. has valid strategic reasons for protecting Taiwans sovereignty. They are the 'cork in the bottle' that keeps China contained within the south China sea. Moreover, Taiwan is the only place where the U.S. can fight China in a conventional war without it immediately escalating into a nuclear conflict. If they don't make a stand here, they might not be able to make a stand anywhere else. The Americans are very arrogant about their military capabilitys, and are adamantly opposed to Chinas economic expansionism.

There is currently an ongoing debate about what the extent of the U.S. military commitment to Taiwan should be, and whether they are willing to actually get into a serious fight with China. There are many voices within the establishment who are calling for Biden to make a firm pledge to safeguard Taiwans security.

Calls Grow for Biden to Commit to Defending Taiwan

To deter war with China, US must commit to defend Taiwan

Beijing Accelerating Timeline for Possible Taiwan Invasion, Expert Warns

[–]Lugger 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

The U.S. has valid strategic reasons for protecting Taiwans sovereignty

...

You missed my point, pal. Whether the U.S. has any reasons to protect Taiwan or not is irrelevant because America will never launch a war against those 'nasty Chinese commies' just to salvage some tiny little island the common folk don't care about.

Moreover, Taiwan is the only place where the U.S. can fight China in a conventional war without it immediately escalating into a nuclear conflict.

Bollocks. Nothing can possibly prevent either side from putting nuclear missiles to use if the war, after all, begins.

There is currently an ongoing debate about what the extent of the U.S. military commitment to Taiwan should be, and whether they are willing to actually get into a serious fight with China. There are many voices within the establishment who are calling for Biden to make a firm pledge to safeguard Taiwans security.

The establishment can virtue signal about their hardcore support for Taiwan as much as they like for all I care, declaring a war on a behemoth that is China over it would be a suicide — political or otherwise. They would have a hard time explaining to the people how can this island be so important they have to face a threat of a nuclear holocaust because of it.

Beijing Accelerating Timeline for Possible Taiwan Invasion, Expert Warns

I can't wait until this happens. The Chicoms should have brought Taiwan back into the greater China long ago to finally end this island's misery of being a thorn up the West's ass that is being kept alive by the investments and (empty) promises of support against the commies.

If the Chinese make a move to annex Taiwan, the worst thing that awaits them are a few economic sanctions and angry finger wags. The West — and particularly the U.S. — won't risk implementing more serious punishments.

[–]ifuckredditsnitches_Resident Pajeet 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

If the Chinese make a move to annex Taiwan, the worst thing that awaits them are a few economic sanctions and angry finger wags. The West — and particularly the U.S. — won't risk implementing more serious punishments.

They could also blockade the Malacca Strait. The reason China wants Taiwan is that it's basically an American colony right on its doorstep constantly threatening to take its maritime sovereignty away.

[–]TheJamesRocket 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

You missed my point, pal. Whether the U.S. has any reasons to protect Taiwan or not is irrelevant because America will never launch a war against those 'nasty Chinese commies' just to salvage some tiny little island the common folk don't care about.

Don't be so sure about that. The Neocons have fought wars over less.

Remember, this isn't just about Taiwan. Its about containing China and preventing them from economically surpassing the U.S. (which may already be too late). If Taiwan is conquered, the entire strategy of containment goes out the window. The U.S. is very ambivalent over this point. Its not as cut and dry as you think.

Bollocks. Nothing can possibly prevent either side from putting nuclear missiles to use if the war, after all, begins.

Nothing except the self preservation instinct. Neither side gains anything by using nukes in a naval campaign around Taiwan. If one side uses nukes, they will get nuked in return. It isn't going to be a tit for tat response, either. If China uses 2 nukes, the U.S. might retaliate with 15.

The establishment can virtue signal about their hardcore support for Taiwan as much as they like for all I care, declaring a war on a behemoth that is China over it would be a suicide — political or otherwise.

Not at all. If the U.S. commits to a defense of Taiwan, they can be almost certain that the conflict will remain limited to that theater. They can also be highly certain that it will not escalate to the point where nukes are used. If China trys to raise the stakes by widening the conflict to another theater, they will look like war mongers and alienate the rest of Asia. That would be a huge political victory for the U.S., and would aid them in their strategy of containing China.

The Chicoms should have brought Taiwan back into the greater China long ago to finally end this island's misery of being a thorn up the West's ass that is being kept alive by the investments and (empty) promises of support against the commies.

Taiwan is the only thing left from the traditional China that existed before the communist revolution. Their culture has not been warped or distorted like mainland China. It would be a shame to see Taiwan succumb to the virus of communism they escaped from 70 years ago.

If the Chinese make a move to annex Taiwan, the worst thing that awaits them are a few economic sanctions and angry finger wags. The West — and particularly the U.S. — won't risk implementing more serious punishments.

Ultimately, this all comes down to what Biden will do. (Or more specifically, what Bidens handlers tell him to do) He and his cabinet appear to be soft on China, despite all their barking. The U.S. military seems to prefer a more confrontational stance with China. It remains to be seen which direction this will swing.

[–]ifuckredditsnitches_Resident Pajeet 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

America won't have boots on the ground but they'll put an aircraft carrier or two down to block China's sea lane access.

[–]casparvoneverecBig tiddy respecter[S] 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Make that 5. The US has 11 aircraft carriers and at least 4 are unavailable at any time due to maintenance. A further two will be kept in the pacific and atlantic coasts of the US to guard against threats, leaving them with 5 aircraft carriers that deploy a maximum of 160 F/A-18 Super Hornets. Those aircraft also undergo maintenance rigors so at any moment at most the US will be able to deploy 110-120 fighters over the skies of Taiwan.

The hornets have a combat range of 700 km and the US carriers will have to operate at least 400-500 km off the coast of Taiwan to evade the threat of air launched cruise missiles, coastal anti-ship missile batteries, Chinese missile boats and corvettes and hunter killer submarines.

The Chinese in contrast have at leats 900 4.5 Gen fighters in their arsenal and the distance from the Chinese coast to Taiwan is about 230-260 km.

So at any given time, the US air force will be outnumbered at least 5-1 over the skies of Taiwan. The Taiwanese air force on the other hand will likely be destroyed on the ground on the first day by Chinese hypersonic and ballistic missile strikes.

So, the odds of the US preventing a Chinese conquest of Taiwan by purely conventional means are slim. The only way I see the US winning is if the Chinese prove to be a total dud, i.e their soldiers are cowards, their officers are incompetent and their equipment is trash, while the US is a total chad with brave soldiers, excellent officers and perfectly functioning equipment.

While this scenario looms large in neocon fantasies, I think the reality is starkly different. We see Chinese competence in every field of human endeavor, be it governance, construction, science or engineering. They built a skyscraper in 19 days for fuck's sake!

While the US, I think we know the score.

[–]ifuckredditsnitches_Resident Pajeet 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

The only way I see the US winning is if the Chinese prove to be a total dud, i.e their soldiers are cowards, their officers are incompetent and their equipment is trash

Their recent clashes with India prove this, PLA soldiers have very low morale and no motivation. An amphibious invasion of Taiwan with its geographic difficulties will be more difficult than Normandy and I don't know that they have what it takes. The thing that'll prevent China from following through with this isn't really the US's deterrence but the consequences of sending so many men into that meat grinder, especially in a country where families only have one son to secure their future. Plus China is not an independent country at all when it comes to food and supplies and if it goes this far then there would be consequences economically.

I'd say China won't be ready to make such an invasion until after 2050 or so