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[–]fschmidt 6 insightful - 2 fun6 insightful - 1 fun7 insightful - 2 fun -  (2 children)

Shabbat shalom, a few points.

Genes do indeed give you a ceiling but not a floor. Intelligence is much like physical strength in this regard. A couch potato will be weak regardless of his genetic potential. And this is essentially the situation of genetic westerners today whose intelligence is far below its genetic potential.

IQ isn't a perfect measure to intelligence and the recent Flynn effect is a result of this. European intelligence peaked around 1800 and has been declining ever since. Edward Dutton discusses this in detail.

The genetic decline of intelligence is the greatest threat currently facing humanity. It could be reversed by one small group with eugenic practices. This is an idea that I have been pushing for a long time, but there seems to be little interest in this.

I am fairly confident that humanity is already too stupid to make the fundamental breakthroughs that would be needed to take AI to a level where it could really run things. So a dark age is inevitable.

[–]casparvoneverecBig tiddy respecter[S] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

[–]fschmidt 6 insightful - 2 fun6 insightful - 1 fun7 insightful - 2 fun -  (0 children)

I don't know enough about this area to judge it. I could be wrong in my predictions, of course. The general trend is that progress is slowing which means that big advances become less probable but not impossible.

[–]Nombre27 4 insightful - 1 fun4 insightful - 0 fun5 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Barring some significant population collapse, I think it's a non-issue for the time being. That isn't to say it's good or who cares but with the size of our population right now, I think there is likely enough smart people to fill these positions, but I am just guessing.

I don't know what IQ cut-off we need for every job or how many jobs there are in each field.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_the_United_States#Race

Median age of each race

Race Median age (both sex) (years) Median age (male) (years) Median age (female) (years)
White 43.5 42.1 45

Population pyramid of the European Union 2016

Before IQ, given that a large enough population can overcome the average decrease, I would put birthrates, which you identified (top third out-breeding bottom two-thirds) as a greater concern. Whites have a special mix of intelligence and creativity and the collapse of this population is what will accelerate what you're describing. The world will be left with the intellect of the cold, uncreative, and scrupulous Asians, while the brown people are left to fend for themselves as what field labour?

My guess is this where the Flynn effect comes from. In the 20th century, IQ greatly increased, by as much as 15 points across developed and developing countries. This is owed to better nutrition ala more protein in youth, and a standard education system.

Quick thought into my head about this, is the whole eating bugs, anti-meat, pro-vegan propaganda that has become the norm. Less meat means less high quality protein, which if what you say is true, will mean less intelligent people.

This intellectual superiority translated into military excellence as well. Even its worst detractors had to admit that the German military was second to none in quality and efficiency in both world wars. Coming to the cusp of victory against the entire world despite being short of resources and manpower.

I think this paragraph sums up what the world is facing right now. Are we to choose quantity and egalitarianism or quality and hierarchy?

Regarding scientific advancement, we are lucky to have inherited so much, I think there will still be people to keep picking that fruit for the time-being, but you are right. Barring a significant outlier that is actually equipped and provided for, if we're regressing intellectually/cognitively then how can we ever expect our reach to exceed our grasp? I think it follows that to take a previous persons lifework even further, you either need to be of equal intelligence and live longer, or be more intelligent. I think the failure of public education to cultivate minds with this explicit intent is criminal. The laissez-faire education model we presently have will never outshine deliberate practice of an established curriculum, e.g. Great Books, trivium, quadrivium.

Regarding Africa's population, if we make it out of this, I think in the future the creation of that burden is going to harsh lesson on the consequences of altruism.

You're right about the downward spiral accelerating in your comment about maintenance at 100 vs. 85.

By 2035 or 2040, there won't be any physical labor left.

I have my doubts about this. With machines you end up in an infinite regress of repair. Presently few automakers make vehicles that have compatible parts, likely due to planned obsolescence but that's still where their profit motive is and cars are fairly simple compared to other technology. You are right to worry about technotyranny, we're in the infant stages right now and it's quite terrifying. Just wait until currency goes digital and your accounts are closed for saying something inappropriate.

Best to find some lebensraum with like-minded people and get to work.

[–]EthnocratArcheofuturist 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

In France, this dysgenic process started even earlier in the 18th century because it was the first country in history to adopt liberalism and secularism on a wide scale.

This is why they also might be the first ones to overcome it.

Anyway, great post. Your writing is getting better.

[–]casparvoneverecBig tiddy respecter[S] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Thanks fren

[–]ifuckredditsnitches_Resident Pajeet 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

How exactly will AI be able to combat against the inherent vulnerability of such a complex System? It takes 9 substations to get exploded for the US to have an 18 month power outage nationwide. Most civilizations throughout history have always been a house of card similar to that. It only takes a handful of infrastructure, a few people not getting paid, etc for everything to come crashing down. AI can run civilization at the soft level, assuming no interruptions. AI as we know it today can't stop civilization from falling.

It seems more inevitable for the US to collapse to Mexico or Pakistan level in terms of stability or rule of law than for some 'AI imperium' to come up.

The trains would be maintained and run on time by algorithms. Drones would maintain law and order according to programming, industries would run according to algorithms, goods would be delivered according to needs, all could be orchestrated by a central AI, a machine god so to speak.

Literally all of that could be toppled with radio jammers and destruction of infrastructure. It takes months to fix broken power lines, internet cables, rail, bridges, roads, etc.