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[–]WaltzRoommate 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

I only briefly skimmed in on double speed, but isn't his model using 2016 primary results?

I agree that 2016 Trump would beat Biden. However, it's critical to account for the fact that Trump has been a bigger letdown than virtually any other president, in terms of central promises broken.

[–]EthnocratArcheofuturist 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

but isn't his model using 2016 primary results?

No, it's the 2020 primary results.

However, it's critical to account for the fact that Trump has been a bigger letdown than virtually any other president, in terms of central promises broken.

That's only with us. His conservative boomer base is still strong.

[–]WaltzRoommate 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

No, it's the 2020 primary results.

I was working so I barely watched. Can you rehash his reasoning for me, because doing that for an incumbent inherently sounds fishy.

[–]EthnocratArcheofuturist 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

He looked at primary performances for every presidential election since 1912, and his model has been accurate 25 out of 27 times. The 2 times he got it wrong was for 1960 and 2000, which were both dubious elections. He's confident Trump will win because no sitting president has ever had a better performance in the primaries. I really think you should try to watch the video I linked in full. He's definitively a smart guy.