The election is practically over, if you have money to spare, bet it on Biden

submitted by casparvoneverecBig tiddy respecter from self.debatealtright

sorted by:
top
newinsightfulfun
you are viewing a single comment's thread.

view the rest of the comments →

[–]WaltzRoommate 4 insightful - 1 fun4 insightful - 0 fun5 insightful - 1 fun -  (10 children)

It's not hard to say words when faced with data, especially to an audience who wants the data to be wrong. What's hard is to fight data with data and I've never seen one of these "Don't believe the polls" guys do that.

[–]casparvoneverecBig tiddy respecter[S] 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

Precisely. Demographics, immigration, Trump's own betrayals and his catastrophic decision not to ram through huge stimulus checks before the election has doomed him. Cucking hard to BLM has further deteriorated his standing

[–]Fitter_HappierWhite Nationalist 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

He's got one card to play if that moron would play it, he could sign the Birthright EO and tell his base if Biden gets in he'll rescind the first day without a court fight. Trump could take it to the supreme court in his next term and make it law.

[–]casparvoneverecBig tiddy respecter[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Even more effective than that would be Trump bucks. Forward a proposal for 3000$ a month for all Americans due to the economic downturn. If anyone tries to veto it, Trump can grandstand as the hero. This is a democracy, he should try to at least bribe the voters with something. All he offers are slaps to their faces in the form of first step act and tax cuts

[–]Fitter_HappierWhite Nationalist 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

I believe that would be seen by all as a temporary bone and wouldn't fire up the intellectual base like BCEO would.

[–]EthnocratArcheofuturist 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (4 children)

https://youtu.be/hwWMdOpZS_E

[–]WaltzRoommate 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

I only briefly skimmed in on double speed, but isn't his model using 2016 primary results?

I agree that 2016 Trump would beat Biden. However, it's critical to account for the fact that Trump has been a bigger letdown than virtually any other president, in terms of central promises broken.

[–]EthnocratArcheofuturist 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

but isn't his model using 2016 primary results?

No, it's the 2020 primary results.

However, it's critical to account for the fact that Trump has been a bigger letdown than virtually any other president, in terms of central promises broken.

That's only with us. His conservative boomer base is still strong.

[–]WaltzRoommate 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

No, it's the 2020 primary results.

I was working so I barely watched. Can you rehash his reasoning for me, because doing that for an incumbent inherently sounds fishy.

[–]EthnocratArcheofuturist 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

He looked at primary performances for every presidential election since 1912, and his model has been accurate 25 out of 27 times. The 2 times he got it wrong was for 1960 and 2000, which were both dubious elections. He's confident Trump will win because no sitting president has ever had a better performance in the primaries. I really think you should try to watch the video I linked in full. He's definitively a smart guy.

[–]LetssavethefirsworldReturn to Jesus 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Did you watch the episode where he goes over registration data or how the polls are not correctly weighting by location?

For example in Pennsylvania a recent NYT poll sampled only 2 people who live in the 'fracking belt' whereas they sampled a shitload of voters from blue areas. I'm not saying that Trump is winning- he's not- but he's not down by 9 nationally based on the bs sampling out there