all 27 comments

[–]send_nasty_stuffNational Socialist 5 insightful - 1 fun5 insightful - 0 fun6 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Trump in a landslide. Screencap this.

[–]casparvoneverecBig tiddy respecter[S] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

I hope you're right. But I just don't see a path to victory this time

[–]EthnocratArcheofuturist 4 insightful - 1 fun4 insightful - 0 fun5 insightful - 1 fun -  (5 children)

I still think he'll win. 77% of Trump voters wouldn't tell their family or friends. I think the polls are massively underestimating the "shy Trump voter" effect.

[–]casparvoneverecBig tiddy respecter[S] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (4 children)

Trump voters are old and dying. Democrat voters are coming up by the millions

[–]EthnocratArcheofuturist 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

We'll see. It's also possible that he'll rig it.

[–]casparvoneverecBig tiddy respecter[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

Nope. You can rig elections only when the establishment is on your side.

[–]EthnocratArcheofuturist 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Then force a civil war.

[–]casparvoneverecBig tiddy respecter[S] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

That can't happen without sincere leadership. The Republicans are all controlled op and will do little other than placate their base with tough talk and ''court procedures''

[–]antireddit 4 insightful - 1 fun4 insightful - 0 fun5 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Trump was likely finished as soon as he jettisoned Bannon. Once Bannon was gone his administration became easy pickings for the Ziocons, who got what they could on Israel while running his presidency into the ground and alienating Trump voters who werent diehards or lifelong republicans but liked that he seemed to stick up for whites in 2016.

Once Trump fell into the democrats trap and declared he was done negotiating for another stimulus package before the election I think he sealed his fate. That and his post covid diagnosis shenanigans just made him seem dangerously clownish. I wouldnt rule out a member of his zionist inner circle intentionally tried to infect him, a little October surprise and revenge for his flirting with white nationalism.

Should he lose I dont think it's necessarily a bad thing. He gave non shitlib whites false hope and gave them a false impression they had some power while he did nothing of substance for them and watched by idly as big tech and big media completely robbed them of a voice while the left openly attacked them. I say good riddance to him and the oligarch owned GOP that abandoned them. The fact the democrats are far worse will now allow non cucked whites to galvanize in opposition and push back, and hopefully build a truly populist platform.

[–]casparvoneverecBig tiddy respecter[S] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

All true.

Bannon is a neocon too, but at least he wanted to do some good things economically and rebuild US industry. After kicking him and Flynn out, Trump simply became a gayer version of Mitt Romney

[–]LetssavethefirsworldReturn to Jesus 3 insightful - 2 fun3 insightful - 1 fun4 insightful - 2 fun -  (11 children)

Trump is the last Republican; however, he still has 50% chance imo. Check out Red Eagle Politics on YT he shows how much of the polling is BS and much early voting analysis is misleading

[–]WaltzRoommate 4 insightful - 1 fun4 insightful - 0 fun5 insightful - 1 fun -  (10 children)

It's not hard to say words when faced with data, especially to an audience who wants the data to be wrong. What's hard is to fight data with data and I've never seen one of these "Don't believe the polls" guys do that.

[–]casparvoneverecBig tiddy respecter[S] 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

Precisely. Demographics, immigration, Trump's own betrayals and his catastrophic decision not to ram through huge stimulus checks before the election has doomed him. Cucking hard to BLM has further deteriorated his standing

[–]Fitter_HappierWhite Nationalist 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

He's got one card to play if that moron would play it, he could sign the Birthright EO and tell his base if Biden gets in he'll rescind the first day without a court fight. Trump could take it to the supreme court in his next term and make it law.

[–]casparvoneverecBig tiddy respecter[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Even more effective than that would be Trump bucks. Forward a proposal for 3000$ a month for all Americans due to the economic downturn. If anyone tries to veto it, Trump can grandstand as the hero. This is a democracy, he should try to at least bribe the voters with something. All he offers are slaps to their faces in the form of first step act and tax cuts

[–]Fitter_HappierWhite Nationalist 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

I believe that would be seen by all as a temporary bone and wouldn't fire up the intellectual base like BCEO would.

[–]EthnocratArcheofuturist 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (4 children)

[–]WaltzRoommate 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

I only briefly skimmed in on double speed, but isn't his model using 2016 primary results?

I agree that 2016 Trump would beat Biden. However, it's critical to account for the fact that Trump has been a bigger letdown than virtually any other president, in terms of central promises broken.

[–]EthnocratArcheofuturist 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

but isn't his model using 2016 primary results?

No, it's the 2020 primary results.

However, it's critical to account for the fact that Trump has been a bigger letdown than virtually any other president, in terms of central promises broken.

That's only with us. His conservative boomer base is still strong.

[–]WaltzRoommate 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

No, it's the 2020 primary results.

I was working so I barely watched. Can you rehash his reasoning for me, because doing that for an incumbent inherently sounds fishy.

[–]EthnocratArcheofuturist 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

He looked at primary performances for every presidential election since 1912, and his model has been accurate 25 out of 27 times. The 2 times he got it wrong was for 1960 and 2000, which were both dubious elections. He's confident Trump will win because no sitting president has ever had a better performance in the primaries. I really think you should try to watch the video I linked in full. He's definitively a smart guy.

[–]LetssavethefirsworldReturn to Jesus 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Did you watch the episode where he goes over registration data or how the polls are not correctly weighting by location?

For example in Pennsylvania a recent NYT poll sampled only 2 people who live in the 'fracking belt' whereas they sampled a shitload of voters from blue areas. I'm not saying that Trump is winning- he's not- but he's not down by 9 nationally based on the bs sampling out there

[–]send_nasty_stuffNational Socialist 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

[–]EthnocratArcheofuturist 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

What is that?

[–]send_nasty_stuffNational Socialist 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

A poll.

[–]casparvoneverecBig tiddy respecter[S] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

[–][deleted] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

RemindMe! 1 month.

I wish.