Here's Why the Polls Don't Make ANY Sense

submitted by EthnocratArcheofuturist from self.debatealtright

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[–]WaltzRoommate 7 insightful - 1 fun7 insightful - 0 fun8 insightful - 1 fun -  (14 children)

I'm just gonna write my thoughts in order.

1: If "stronger" means likely to win, then yes I think Biden is as strong or stronger than Obama. Trump's base is demoralized, barely shows up to rallies relative to 2016, and knows that he will not seriously change their lives. Trumptards now are a different breed than Trump supporters in 2016. In 2016, it was fresh intellectual energy and youthful charisma. Now it's the same exact people who voted for Romney, but more demoralized and with fewer moderates.

2: Rasmussen is a conservative pollster. If they say Trump is fucked then a voice not biased against him says he's fucked.

3: Florida is very diverse and diverse people hate Trump. His strategy of blacks and hispanics will be as fruitless as it was in the midterms and has been for every Republican ever.

4: Monmouth poll is probably correct too. Just because you don't like what the data says doesn't mean that the data is false. The fact that we're losing really really really badly doesn't refute that we're losing.

5: I was gonna say that the number of Republican voter registrations was a decent argument from this boomer, but he follows it up by saying that unpopularity with Republicans is the reason for Trump's bad numbers according to Rasmussen. He refuted his only decent sounding argument.

6: "The methodology of these polls is unsounds. I took a college course on this." ... Proceeds not to discuss these methods and why they're false.

7: Did he seriously just cite NBA rankings as an argument against political polling data? Smh.

Demographics have changed because the massive influx of legal immigrants is the only promise Trump made to anyone other than Israel and kept. His base got nothing and knows, even if they won't admit it, that the future of this country isn't on the line because he got nothing done. People like me think it's not worth their time to vote. I don't think Trump will even get 40% in this election. That's my prediction. Trump gets less than 40. Feel free to make fun of me if I'm wrong.

[–]EthnocratArcheofuturist[S] 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (6 children)

diverse people hate Trump.

Didn't he got a third of the Hispanic vote? And aren't Florida Hispanics mostly Cubans who hate leftists?

Just because you don't like what the data says doesn't mean that the data is false.

I honestly don't care because Trump was never going to save white America.

The fact that we're losing really really really badly doesn't refute that we're losing.

What do you mean by "we"? Conservatives? Because white identity is only growing in America.

Feel free to make fun of me if I'm wrong.

I feel no need to do that my friend.

[–]WaltzRoommate 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (5 children)

Didn't he got a third of the Hispanic vote? And aren't Florida Hispanics mostly Cubans who hate leftists?

Florida has some cubans but I doubt it's mostly cubans. I've spent time there in Miami, Tampa, and Orlando. Miami-dade was pretty Cuban, though I doubt mostly, and it votes hard left. Tampa is mystery meat as far as the eye can see. Orlando is not especially Cuban.

Anyways though, didn't Trump only win it in 2016 by a fraction of a percent? Throw in immigrants, particularly those from Puerto Rico, and dying old whites, throw in some lack of enthusiasm of his demoralized base, and we're done.

What do you mean by "we"? Conservatives? Because white identity is only growing in America.

White identity is growing, but at a slower rate than we need it too. Frankly, the boomers will never accept it because they'll be dead before shit really hits the fan. Ask them about it. They will literally answer, "Well, I'll be dead before that happens" as if it's a solution to everyone's problems.

I feel no need to do that my friend.

<3

[–]EthnocratArcheofuturist[S] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (4 children)

White identity is growing, but at a slower rate than we need it too.

That can change. There are always dramatic upticks. The first big wave of white identity came after the migrant crisis here in Europe. More crises will happen.

[–]Blackbrownfreestuff 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

Where in Europe is this happening? Where is the white identity?

[–]EthnocratArcheofuturist[S] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

Have you been living under a rock? Have you not seen the rise of national populism?

[–]Blackbrownfreestuff 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

I guess I have been living under a rock. Do u have some examples?

[–]EthnocratArcheofuturist[S] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Just look at the entire debate on immigration and identity. 5 years ago people like Orban were seen as fringe. Now they're mainstream.

[–][deleted]  (1 child)

[deleted]

    [–]WaltzRoommate 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

    I'm not voting for him because I'd rather just kick out the appearance of us having power when we clearly do not. There's a strong dialectic of "I'm the completely disempowered fucked demographic" and we can't use that dialectic until these idiots who pretend to do something for us are gone.

    [–]Blackbrownfreestuff 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

    I'm not voting this election. I'm over voting, mostly for selfish reasons. Every time I vote I feel like ive been bamboozled. I dont like that feeling.

    [–]WaltzRoommate 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

    Voting takes an hour.

    Trump hasn't done one hour of useful work during his presidency.

    Ergo, not worth it.

    [–]Blackbrownfreestuff 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

    Agreed, what a fucking worthless windbag. Voting as a leftist must be nice. Imagine having unaplogetic racist politicians like AOC and Kamala Harris as options.

    [–][deleted] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

    My thoughts:

    1a) I do not think Biden is stronger than Obama. Obama had organic visible support everwhere. People don't like Biden more than Hillary, but they hate him a lot less. I honestly have no idea what Biden is running on though like Hillary except giving Brazil 20 billion, stacking the SC and locking the entire US down. Kamala is more unlikeable though and we all know she's going to be President in a year if Biden wins. I don't know if the general population knows it though.

    1b) Trump in 2016 felt like an outsider who might finally be able to break the two party system and actually be able to do things. Within two months it was clear he was going to just going to be a a small upgrade on the average R. The main issues of 2016 like the wall, immigration, draining the swamp and healthcare(well, this this was brought up the last 3 weeks), have basically been forgotten. And shit that he should be talking about like stopping online censorship aren't even on the table for discussion.

    The R's failures when they had all 3 houses is also a hard pill to swallow. Shit should have gotten done and about the same amount of stuff got done as now when they only have the Senate. What's really going to be different this time if they get all three houses again?

    His touting of SC picks is stupid because anyone with a brain should know that its luck whether someone retires or drops dead.

    I've argued with Trump supporters about this and they blame alot of the failures on the whole establishment being against him, which it is, but Trump could have just Executive Order'd his way through. And he didn't...because he either is afraid of being called a nazi...which newsflash, he is called that anyway. Or because a lot of trump supporters said he wanted to do things "the honorable way", which R's have proven time and time again to be a losing strategy.

    2) I definitely did think Rasmussen was the only mostly trustworthy poll in 2016. I have not really followed the polls too much, but if I had to trust in any poll, it's that one. Polls are not trustworthy though. National polls are never worth looking at because the election isn't based on popular votes. Regular polls are always going to lean left because people on the right are likely more busy and even more likely to be in area's where they have horrible phone service to even respond to polls.

    Demographics have changed

    Yep. Florida gave a bunch of felons the vote. A bunch of people from PR are in the US now, plus others we let in. And more older people died off who were more likely to be Trump supporters.

    I don't think Trump will even get 40% in this election. That's my prediction. Trump gets less than 40.

    Elections really only come down to about 6 states. MI, PA, OH, NC, VA or WI. I didn't count FL because I think Trump will win it.

    The EV totals are: WI = 10 VA = 13 NC = 15 MI = 16 OH = 18 PA = 20

    Trump has to win PA/OH and then pick up one of NC/VA/MI. I think it's very likely he does it. But, I also think there are two bad scenarios where Trump wins PA/OH/MI or Trump only wins NC/OH. Trump wins 270-268 if he only wins PA/OH/MI, but if he only wins NC/OH...its a 269 tie. Either situation is going to be really nasty though.

    [–]WaltzRoommate 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

    1a) I do not think Biden is stronger than Obama. Obama had organic visible support everwhere. People don't like Biden more than Hillary, but they hate him a lot less. I honestly have no idea what Biden is running on though like Hillary except giving Brazil 20 billion, stacking the SC and locking the entire US down. Kamala is more unlikeable though and we all know she's going to be President in a year if Biden wins. I don't know if the general population knows it though.

    Biden is stronger in the way I defined strength in my comment because he has a weaker opponent than Obama or, ironically, Hillary.