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[–]ShiversRussia2017 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

All these guys have their own biases and shortcomings.I see no way Trump can win this with the magnitude of factors against him.

https://saidit.net/s/debatealtright/comments/6h8w/after_trump_loses_in_novemberwhat_is_the_plan/

[–]TheJamesRocket[S] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

No. These experts have a long track record of accurately predicting election outcomes. If you want to get down to it, then what does your record look like? You don't have any objective methodology for predicting who will win the election. All three of these guys do. It doesn't help your case to suggest that they might be biased: You have to criticise their methodology.

Lichtman uses the 13 Keys Model to predict a winner, Norpoth uses the Primary Model to predict a winner, whereas Gundlach works by market analysis. They all make their judgements based on different criteria, and yet they were all able to make an accurate forecast in 2016, 2012, 2008, etc.

[–]Blackbrownfreestuff 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

But now it's split, so which side is correct?