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[–]SaidOverRed 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

US deaths from all causes (including murder) from March 1 to August 16 are 260k. 169k of that were from people who had covid, even coincidentally. If we use the CDC 6% figure to weed out comorbidities (already dying of cancer, morbidly obese, 92 years old, etc) we end with 10k deaths directly from covid. That's 5.5/12 months (45.83%) worth

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html Note that during a normal flu season is 12k-43k. Or for the same roughly half year amount that would come out to a 5.5k-19.7k average. So it would seem Covid is a half-way between a good and a bad flu year so far. This middling result is so mediocre its amazing we reacted to it at all. We didn't mask/social distance/shut down the economy when things were twice as bad in 2012. This just doesn't justify social or economic change.

[–]chadwickofwv 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

That's because this one was planned.

[–]SaidOverRed 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

I'd like to add an addendum to my post. I could not verify the mortality.org numbers. Yes, the https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid does represent them correctly, but their current year total deaths (in covid packet) does not agree with the CDC's total yearly numbers, even though they DO agree with the covid number of 160k over that time frame.

I wanted to go verify comorbidities compared to the total death rate increase to see if the big picture lines up correctly. The best source I found that is guaranteed to accord with the CDC numbers is: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm Note how it has deaths from pneumonia with or without covid. If we take this a the primary way Covid kills, and we compare to last year's pneumonia deaths https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/04102020/nchs-data.html we should be able to subtract those and get a good estimate for Covid deaths without using the potentially tainted 'successful suicides ruled a covid death' problem.

It's about 3k/month in 2019 and it's about so far in 25k/month in 2020 so covid is about 22k/month which lines up with the original 195k. This is a good case it ignore bickering over comorbidities (smokers getting pneumonia more easily once they get covid) since it is a direct measure of cause of death. So sure the usual 94% of people who end WITH covid (.187 million) might know they are at serious risk before dying and should be the ones (along with those in their adjacent, at risk cohorts) quarantining, distancing, hand-washing, mask-wearing, showing when coming home, etc, but those are the ones the other 330 million are bending backwards for. This is the actual cost-benefit analysis.