Unemployment has a higher mortality rate than Coronavirus and may be the bigger killer of the two

submitted by oaf from sciencedirect.com

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[–]danuker 3 insightful - 3 fun3 insightful - 2 fun4 insightful - 3 fun -  (4 children)

Raises the risk of dying by 6%? During its peak 24h period in Italy, coronavirus increased the risk of dying by 54%

Calculation: 919 / 1700 = 0.54

[–]whereswhat 2 insightful - 2 fun2 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 2 fun -  (3 children)

No. Corona virus did not increase the risk of dying by 54% that day in Italy. Risk of dying in a day is the current risk plus the risk of mortality from COVID times the risk of contracting. Also, it's 6% per point drop in unemployment.

Unemployment is a vastly greater threat to the general population than COVID-19. Not to say it isn't reasonable to take every measure to ensure our healthcare systems aren't overloaded by this thing.

[–]danuker 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

plus the risk of mortality from COVID times the risk of contracting

We don't know either of those values. We can only estimate them. But we DO HAVE an ACTUAL DEATH RATE, the 919 people per day (peak in Italy).

Unemployment is a vastly greater threat to the general population than COVID-19.

As if not instituting a quarantine will make the tourists come back if your country is teeming with the virus.

[–]whereswhat 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

You are absolutely right that we don't know either of those values, which is why I did not assign numbers to them.

I think your argument would be more meaningful if you compared the total number of deaths that day to the average total number of deaths on that specific day over the last 50 years, for example. There are just too many uncontrolled variables otherwise. Not that it's not an interesting observation, it's just too anecdotal to compare to the probability given in OPs link that mortality rates go up 6% per point drop in employment. Also, even if it was comparable, that 6% can turn into 60% with a 10 point change in employment rates.

I want to be clear that I am strongly in favor of quarantines because I understand statistics and am not an idiot. Living in San Francisco we are experiencing a much more mild peak than most other places because we were proactive. Quarantines or not, however, job losses and depressed economies are inevitable and pose a much greater threat to the average person than COVID.

[–]danuker 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Sure, my argument is very simple, and falls short on accuracy. But it should give you an idea of the relative scale compared to the typical death rate.