the numbers vs media reaction

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[–]magnora7 18 insightful - 3 fun18 insightful - 2 fun19 insightful - 3 fun -  (11 children)

Yeah and that coronavirus number is doubling every 3 days, so we're already up to 40k deaths in the few days since that chart was made: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

And in about 8 more days it'll pass the seasonal flu in deaths, and in about 6 days after that it'll be halfway down the list and pass traffic fatalities, and 6 days after that over a million people will be dead from it.

In total it's expected about 1-2 million people will die from this based on current growth patterns.

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." - Al Bartlett

[–]ReactionSalt 6 insightful - 2 fun6 insightful - 1 fun7 insightful - 2 fun -  (1 child)

The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." - Al Bartle

Yea this infographic isnt a useful or even accurate meme. After this is all over we can look back and do some comparison.

Until then the real important numbers to follow are daily death rate and daily infection rate. We are already starting to see the daily infection rate slow in New York, death rate will start slow next. Then at some point in the next month the daily infection rate will plateau and that will be the begin of the end of this pandemic. Once the death rate platues we can start drawing more meaningful conclusions from data we have collected.

[–]magnora7 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

I agree. And there is also the confounding variable of the fact that the number of positives is limited by the number of tests available, not the number of people with the disease. So it's hard to say what the real numbers are right now, and like you said we'll have to wait until we're past the peak of it before we can draw any real conclusions about the final numbers.

But the thing people have to understand is that it's still ramping up, big time. And will be for the next 2-3 weeks. I think a lot of people are getting complacent and begin thinking it's mostly over. But we should be bracing for impact because the big wave is yet to arrive.

[–]fred_red_beans 4 insightful - 1 fun4 insightful - 0 fun5 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

I guess ultimately, we'll see. My sense is that this is a planned control tactic more than disease response.

In 2017 the WHO reported up to 650 000 people die of respiratory diseases linked to seasonal flu each year

https://www.worldometers.info/ also reports that:

  • 3,221,917 Communicable disease deaths this year
  • 120,664 Seasonal flu deaths this year
  • 1,240,694 Deaths caused by smoking this year
  • 620,740 Deaths caused by alcohol this year

but we have yet to lock down the planet due to flu, smoking, or alcohol.

2,000,000 deaths / 7,700,000,000 world population = 0.026% death of world population

[–]jamesK_3rd 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

That's because ppl aren't susceptible to The panic over flu virus, epidemic or not.

[–]yetanotherone_sigh 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

I think it's a great idea to save this comment, then go back to OP in about a week and rub his nose in the fact that he's totally wrong and you are totally right. And then a week after that, and another week after that.

All these deniers are going to get a LOT of people killed.

[–]yetanotherone_sigh 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

Right now it is the third on the list of fatalities for Americans. Cancer and heart disease are first and second. It is above everything else: upper respiratory infections, accidents of any sort, diabetes, strokes, everything.

[–]magnora7 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Wow. 3rd of all things for March, or the whole year?

[–]yetanotherone_sigh 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

I think that's for the week, or possibly a snapshot of one instance in time.

[–]yetanotherone_sigh 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Guess what, you were totally right.