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[–]Ian 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (6 children)

I've been waiting for this since '97, how will Beijing react to Hong Kong not accepting the tightening noose? Not striking back hard and resolute will set a bad precedence for others that wants more autonomy, but doing so will get a lot of ire from the western world.

[–]magnora7[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (4 children)

I imagine they'll reach some sort of agreement similar to the position Taiwan is in. China isn't stupid. I don't think they'll use open force when the whole world is watching. They've spent decades cultivating a "good guy" image, I don't imagine they'll blow all that good PR on taking Hong Kong alone.

[–]Ian 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

China basically ignores Taiwan and says "It's ours" while Taiwan basically does the same about the Chinese mainland (though not so insistently the last few decades).

I don't see any case where China can allow full independence in all but claim when it comes to Hong Kong, they've already got their hands on HK while they never had them on Taiwan.

They've spent decades cultivating a "good guy" image, I don't imagine they'll blow all that good PR

That's not my impression, to me they've been the "not bad enough dudes" for the western world to justify anything beyond a trade war. A prime example would be how they've supported the North Korean regime directly, or how it's practically recognized how they sell the body parts of executioned prisoners.

[–]magnora7[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

they've already got their hands on HK while they never had them on Taiwan.

Well they're already violating the contract. They don't get full control of HK until 2049, right now HK is governmentally separate from China (like Macau), and China is already violating those terms by extraditing people from HK and so on.

So the legal basis is actually on HK's side because China is jumping the shark.

That's not my impression, to me they've been the "not bad enough dudes" for the western world to justify anything beyond a trade war.

That's reasonable, but I mean they've opened significantly since Mao, and are now a huge world trade partner, because the world trusts them somewhat because of their PR image improving. But yeah in the last decade they've kind of stopped caring about cultivating that image, I agree.

[–]Ian 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

right now HK is governmentally separate from China (like Macau), and China is already violating those terms by extraditing people from HK and so on.

I think that's the problem, the government and part of the legislative branch is supposed to be elected but is instead appointed by China. The judges is appointed by the government, and even if the HK constitution is supposed to be valid until 2049 it doesn't really matter when the judges favours the man over the people.

[–]Snow 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

CCP is stupid.

[–]Snow 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

香港人?