The COVID-19 mortality rate is turning out to be around 0.3% instead of 3-4%

submitted by magnora7 from self.WorldNews

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[–]edwwsw 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (9 children)

First some definitions:

Mortality rate - #deaths by disease/total population.

Case fatality rate -CFR - #deaths by disease/total diagnosed cases.

The flu has a CFR of about ~ 0.1% (Source: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html).

For 2019 CDC estimates 35.5 million people got the flu or about ~11% of the US population. And 34,200 people died of the flu last year.

So ok multiple that 34,200 by 3 to get your estimate for Covid-19 - 100,000 deaths.

Now lets look at this another way.

As of today (about 3 months into the Covid outbreak) we've had 67,682 deaths. Already this is almost twice the deaths of last years flu. Source https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/

The flu has a vaccine and a large percentage of the US population has some immunity to the flu because of that. The is no vaccine for Covid-19 at this point in time. So you're looking at a larger percentage of the US population getting the disease.

Even assuming an optimist 15% of the US population has already gotten the disease, you need ~70% of the population covered to get herd immunity. So again optimistically at least 4 times more people get the disease - 67,000 * 4 = 268,000 deaths. If a lot of people get the disease all at once as we've seen in several European nations, that CFR rate for Covid-19 goes up even higher. In the US we've so far avoided overwhelming the healthcare system.

Still think this is just a bad flu.

[–]astronautrob 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Idt the number you're using are correct. Here is the provisional death data https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm. Looks like from this site the number is at roughly 39000. We also know that this number is dramatic and that not all these deaths are for sure from COVID. We know reporting of COVID deaths are under suspicion. Not to mention that deaths from flu, pneumonia, hearth failure, etc., Etc. Are all down also meaning that a lot of these deaths are being attributed to covid when they shouldn't be. We know these things so to keep using these dramatic numbers to fit your narrative and fear mongering is disingenuous at best. In addition, a lot of your statements are general and not well thought out. To say that a large percentage of the population has immunity to the flu because of a flu vaccine is just plain wrong. What strain of flu are we talking about? You know every year they pick the strain of flu that they think are going to be the worst and thats what more or less goes in this vaccine they give you. You know that right? Sometimes they guess wrong and the flu shot does nothing. That's because there are different strains of the flu, it's not some monolithic thing that they give the same vaccine for every year. You following me here? So to say that the vaccine makes a large percentage of the population immune to the flu is incorrect. Sometimes the flu shot does absolutely nothing at all. I would even upgrade that statement to most of the time it doesn't do anything but that can be debated. So your general statements when taken at face value do support your narrative, as they were obviously intended to do, but the devil is in the details my friend. I know it's hard to get in those details when they don't support your narrative but they are there. Turn off the TV do some research you'll see we've been tricked. Get over your pride of being wrong and start having a honest conversation about this situation with people. Stop virtue signalling and let's have a genuine conversation about what's going on.

[–]Jesus 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

They are reclassifying deaths and if you even have the antibody; and die, then you died from COVID-19.

[–][deleted] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

yeah we would have way more dead right now if not for the distancing

[–]Jesus 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

Problem is many studies show that the herd immunity for an immuno-supressing viral infection (COVID-19) is quite low, which then makes a vaccine even more implausible. But they'll defraud the American people as they did with Lymerix.

[–]FormosaOolong 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

^ Absolutely this.^

[–]edwwsw 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

I absolutely agree that we should be reevaluating the complete quarantine approach to Covid-19. There is always a possibility no vaccine will be found for a vaccine is 2+ years out. But I do take exception to people pretending Covid-19 just a bad flu. Our population has no existing immunity to Covid-19 and its killing a lot more people than the flu. Doing nothing means we get worst result than Italy when the healthcare system gets overrun as it nearly did in New York.

[–]Jesus 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

Why then does Italy and Spain not have excess deaths; the decline in total mortalities was lower than all other flu seasons?

[–]edwwsw 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Cite source for this because I read nothing that supports your assertion.

[–]Jesus 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Euromono, has the mortality rates for the two countries. (europeanmomo); I have it saved somewhere and read it awhile back on UK column.