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[–]penelopepnortneyBecome ungovernable 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

We're looking at this through the lens of Egypt vs Israel but it's actually regional, almost global in its importance.

Starting at the lowest level: the treaty from 1973 gave control of the border crossing at Rafah and the so-called Philadelphia corridor to Egypt. Israel now insisting they must control the Philadelphia corridor to prevent aid for Hamas from slipping through.

This isn't going down well in Egypt. Egypt in very precarious position, it's the largest Arab state in the region, the Nile River and Suez canal give it enormous geostrategic power and influence in the region. Egypt is also in internal turmoil: a serious debt problem, a population of 100 million living on infrastructure designed for 30 million. Sisi on very shaky ground, widely viewed as US and/or Israel puppet. If he doesn't respond in some decisive way w/the use of force against the Israelis, he stands an excellent chance of being removed from power. I'm told by someone who just returned from Egypt that the sense on the street is that war with Israel is inevitable, they see it as incomprehensible that Sisi and other Arab leaders would stand by and watch the Israelis slaughter thousands in Gaza and do nothing.

At the same time, something of enormous strategic importance is happening, the Arab-Chinese summit in Beijing; where you have Sisi and his delegation from Egypt, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia with his delegation and the United Arab Emirates all gathered in Beijing to talk to the Chinese.

There's a growing consensus among the Arabs in the region that the US and its influence in the region needs to be stopped or at least drastically curtailed to the point of irrelevance because it's seen as the power that underwrites the rogue state of Israel.

At this conference they're going to look at a number of things, including the criticality of trade and commerce between the Middle East and China, specifically the North-South Transport Corridor that runs from Russia to the southern port of Iran at Chabahar that will facilitate trade between the Arab states, India, Russia and China. This route is a more secure and more attractive alternative to the standard route that goes through the Suez Canal. It also avoids Israel, that's important because we were trying with the Abraham Accords and our own notion of an India-Middle East-Europe connection to build something that would favor and support Israel's interests. That's over.

If Sisi's the man I think he is, he's in Beijing asking China to invest in Egypt as an alternative to the $3 billion/year they've gotten from the US, and I think China will say yes. And I think the Saudis who are talking about investing in that Iranian port along with India is right on board with Sisi as the UAE will be. So what's dying in the Middle East is any semblance of US strategic power and influence, we're now entirely isolated along with Israel. No one trusts or believes us and they want to do business in spite of us.

The other strategic sea change is the sudden decision in Berlin, for instance, to say that if Netanyahu comes to Germany he could be arrested because of the ICC. Macron has said the same thing, and Spain, Norway and Ireland have all recognized Palestinian statehood [just saw where Slovenia has done this as well]. Things are moving in directions no one thought was possible. And this isn't just about Israel, it's a signal to the US: we're prepared to move on without you.

Germany is moving inch by inch intellectually, mentally and strategically toward Russia, we're going to see a definitive break between the US and Berlin in the months ahead, it's the only way Germany can ever recover economically and hold its society together. And what happens in the Middle East is inextricably entwined with that German need. Historically Germany had good trade relations with Iran and with Turkey. The Turks who at least in theory are still part of NATO and allied with the US are having to choose sides as well and they can't support us in what we're trying to do as we support Israel.

Re: Ukraine, Macgregor thinks that the saber rattling is a facade, that of the 32 or 33 NATO members only a handful seriously contemplate a war with Russia. Even Macron seems to have toned down the rhetoric, maybe his military advisors had a serious talk with him, and the Polish electorate have probably started to realize that if there's a war they'd be first in the firing line. And he thinks at some point Germany will say enough is enough, and that will be the beginning of the end of NATO.

[–]RandomCollection[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

There doesn't seem to be an understanding with the US nor Israel about the bigger implications that Doug Macgregor is raising.

Long term planning isn't a US strong suit.