Video here and runs a little over 16 minutes.
AC: Let's talk about Macron's 3-day visit to Beijing and the way they treated him compared to the way they treated Ursula von der Leyen, who accompanied him there. Obviously China was sending a message to Europe, and they're sending a message with their charm offensive with Macron. The first day was rough but once they isolated Macron, got rid of Ursula, everything changed. The collective West is panicking like crazy over statements from a Macron interview with Politico and some French journalists.
AM: I don't think people should have excessively high expectations of this because Macron has talked like this before - about de-dollarization and Europe needing to find strategic autonomy and to reduce its dependence on the dollar. At one point he talked about NATO being brain dead. But then he falls into line when the neocons blow their whistle.I remember his visit to Moscow on the eve of the Russian invasion and there were all sorts of press conferences about how well he'd gotten along with Putin but in the end his actions didn't fit his words.
The Chinese have probably figured out Macron isn't going to see this thing through and they played him like a violin. I think Ursula's job, by the way, was to go to Beijing with Macron to make sure he didn't say anything out of line. The Chinese subverted that, you see photos of Macron and Xi Jinping strolling through the garden casually dressed, beaming at each other and the French press is full of stories about the great relations between the two countries.
From a Chinese perspective it achieves two things. It plays to Macron's self-conceit, being wined and dined in a way he's never been treated in Washington - remember he's still bitter about the AUKUS debacle where Biden cut a deal with Australia that cut France out of a deal they were negotiating. He ends up saying these amazing things, some of them playing well to the French public because their are people there who are more serious about these things than Macron is himself.
The second thing it achieved is, as you rightly point out, Macron's
statements are spooking the West and the neocons. There's already talk about Macron having betrayed the US by going on this visit, which is interesting since as you previously pointed out, he was sent there to deliver these warnings to China, which he did. The fact that the US and UK feel betrayed shows how far off-script he's gone.
And it shows the skill with which the Chinese handle people like Macron, it's Chinese diplomacy at its most clever.
AC: And I think the Chinese are able to sow doubts in Macron's head. So Macron goes back to France and he's not so sure about the neocon plan for China. I agree the neocons will eventually get him back in line, or regime change him if he doesn't. But he still goes back with doubts and I think those doubts buy China time.
AM:It also complicates European decision-making because they're talking about sanctions on China "tomorrow" - difficult to see how Macron can agree to that right now. I don't think he could do it politically, he already has so much opposition in France and many people DO value French strategic autonomy, whatever they think about the EU.
He will be carpeted. CIA Director William Burns has just been to Saudi
Arabia, he spoke about his frustrations to MbS, it wouldn't be surprising if he's in Paris before long delivering the same kind of message.
AC: Hypothetical - if there was ever a time for Macron to make his move to assert his leadership over Europe, can you make the argument that now is that time? A weak and de-industrialized Germany with a very dim leader; the US led by Biden, enough said; the neocons going nuts, completely obsessed with Ukraine; China has shown what they think of Ursula, president of the EU Commission - let's not forget that Erdogan embarrassed Ursula when she went to Turkey a couple of years ago, the world obviously doesn't take her seriously either. That leaves Macron, not that we take him seriously but considering everyone else he may think now is his opportunity to assert himself as the successor to Merkel or even something greater than that.
AM: Absolutely, this is his moment. A DeGaulle would have
seized it, a Chirac might have. Macron won't because in the end he
lacks the courage to stand up to the neocons. That's why he's been a total failure as a leader. He knows he doesn't have the courage to do that with Russia and China and unfortunately, he'll do what weak
leaders always do, take out the anger on his own people. We've already seen how he's imposing his reforms by diktat and bringing out the riot police to deal with the protests.
AC: One of the goals of the Beijing meeting was to push Xi
Jinping to call Zelensky. Biden has been trying to call Xi, Blinken has
been trying to call China for the same reason but nothing is working. So Macron's trip, and Xi says he'll call Zelensky when he's good and ready.
Yesterday we get a statement from the Ukrainian parliament, I think the head of the parliament, lashing out at China, saying it's under communist delusion, Taiwan isn't and never will be a part of China, stuff like that. How will China respond?
AM: Get even closer to Russia. If you really want to anger the Chinese, you start talking like that about Taiwan. At the very least Zelensky would need to apologize for those comments if he really does want to talk to Xi Jinping.
Bear in mind that when Lithuania appeared to be getting close to
recognizing Taiwan, China imposed sanctions on them.
Whether the Ukrainian parliament member understood this or not, this
is a red flag for China. It shows the anger and frustration of Ukrainians at the fact that China is clearly NOT going to distance itself from Russia or abandon its strategic partnership with Russia or put pressure on Russia to end its operation. If the Ukrainians had such illusions, they're now frittering away.
A point to understand about the Chinese is that they don't respect
you at all if you do this. They respect you more if you respond calmly and in a disciplined way. You find that out very quickly if you have any business dealings with them.
AC: Just a correction, the statement was made by a high-ranking foreign affairs official. In a tweet he said "The CCP keeps crying Taiwan belongs to them but this is a communist delusion drawing on denial and a deeply discredited and defunct political agenda."
AM: Stupid thing to say, something the Chinese won't forget or forgive. Unless they get a groveling apology, which Ukraine isn't going to make.
AC: And Michael McCaul, head of the Foreign Relations Committee for the US, was in Taiwan for a 3-day visit and pretty much said the US was ready to put boots on the ground. And then we have the military drills...
AM: This is getting extremely wild and dangerous. One can understand why the Chinese would want to win over or influence Macron, it makes sense for them to try and create divisions between the Europeans and Americans, that's what the Macron business was essentially about.
The second thing is it's bad news for Ukraine if the US is really thinking about China now to the extent that it is, then it's got to re-focus away from Ukraine. There's a long article today in the London Times saying that the Ukrainian offensive is their last throw and despite the optimism, they can't conceal their skepticism about it
succeeding.
The third thing is that for the US to get involved in a war with China
when it has an unresolved war with Russia is reckless to the point of
absurdity.
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